Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mud House Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2019 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Conde Valdemar Tempranillo Rioja Crianza 2019 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $6.59 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Il Poggio Aglianico Sannio 2018 red · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Lindeman's Bin 30 Sparkling Rose sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $7.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40% below | 13% typically +22% if it rises |
| Luis Felipe Edwards Reserva Sauvignon Blanc Valle de Leyda 2024 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 1% |
| A by Acacia Chardonnay 2022 white · 750 ml | $2.43 $7.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Casa Primicia Rioja Crianza 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Conn Creek Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40% below | <1% |
| Chateau Lilian Ladouys Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $32.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Jean Francois Roy Sauvignon Blanc Touraine 2023 white · Loire · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Josh Cellars Craftsman's Collection Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.45 $10.91 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Luis Felipe Edwards Reserva Sauvignon Blanc Valle de Leyda 2023 white · 750 ml | $5.73 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Alexander Valley Vineyards Sin Zin Zinfandel Sonoma County 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Clos Marsalette Pessac Leognan Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| A by Acacia Chardonnay 2023 white · 750 ml | $7.99 | — | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Argyle Pinot Noir Rose Willamette Valley 2019 rosé · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 1% |
| City Limits Detour Red Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Hearst Ranch Winery Randolph Red Wine Paso Robles 2021 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Chateau Prieure Lichine Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $44.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Bodegas Ondalan Crianza Rioja 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Castello di Meleto Borgaio Vermentino Toscana 2023 white · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Pio Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.09 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Silver Totem Cabernet Sauvignon Wallula Vineyard Horse Heaven Hills 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Rozes Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Duplin White Sangria white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.43 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | 39% below | 1% |
| Mingle Cranberry Cosmo Sparkling Mocktail sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.4% | 39% below | 25% typically +5% if it rises |
| Revelry Vintners Rose Columbia Valley 2022 rosé · Washington · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Bodegas Engueras Pure Est Tempranillo 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Chateau Prieure Lichine Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $59.99 $64.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 39% below | 2% |
| Guarachi Wine Partners Manadero Garnacha DO Carinena 2018 red · 750 ml | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Ken Wright Cellars Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2020 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Roger Goulart Cava Brut Gran Reserva 2015 sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | 1% |
| Vinedos Juegos Clasicos Escoba Malbec Mendoza Reserve red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.89 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.2% | 39% below | 16% typically +10% if it rises |
| Evening Shade Chardonnay 2020 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Lulu Chardonnay Washington 2021 white · Washington · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Vialoni Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2023 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $1.93 $5.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Silenus Winery Tyros Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $9.93 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Liberty Creek Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | 39% below | 4% |
| Red Quartz Pinot Noir Casablanca Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Walla Walla Vintners Sauvignon Blanc Columbia Valley 2022 white · Washington · 750 ml | $4.43 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Il Poggio Guerriero Falanghina Beneventano 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Lindeman's Bin 65 Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.99 | ▼ 4.1% | 0.0% | 39% below | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Riunite Lambrusco sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 11.1% | 39% below | 12% typically +11% if it rises |
| Veuve Clicquot Champagne Demi Sec sparkling · Champagne · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 39% below | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Nicolas Feuillatte Champagne Brut Reserve sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $54.99 | ▲ 14.6% | ▲ 37.5% | 38% below | 2% |
| Buehler Vineyards Chardonnay Russian River Valley 2018 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Duplin Black River Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | 38% below | 6% typically +11% if it rises |
| Ken Wright Cellars Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Il Poggio Guerriero Falanghina Beneventano 2020 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Le Clos d'Augustin Pinot Noir Bourgogne 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $9.03 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
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