Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pali Wine Co Chardonnay Huber Vineyard Santa Rita Hills 2015 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Les Hauts de Janeil Blanc Cotes Catalanes 2023 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lungarotti Vermentino Umbria 2023 white · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| I Campi Campo Base Soave 2023 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Les Clos Beaune Greves 1er Cru Blanc 2019 white · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Jean Vullien et Fils Jacquere Savoie Blanc 2021 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vignerons Ardechois Viognier 2025 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cuatro Rayas Vinedos Centenarios Verdejo Rueda 2023 white · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trabacco Pecorino d'Abruzzo Box 2020 white · Abruzzo · 3000 ml | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Jean Vullien et Fils Jacquere Savoie Blanc 2023 white · 750 ml | $8.33 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dr Loosen Wehlener Sonnenuhr Riesling Kabinett 2022 white · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cuatro Rayas Vendimia Nocturna Verdejo Rueda 2024 white · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Ferrari Carano Dominique Chardonnay Russian River Valley 2021 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Groth Chardonnay Hillview Vineyard Napa Valley 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Talbott Chardonnay Kali Hart white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 5.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Louis Jadot Fourchaume Chablis 1er Cru 2019 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chalk Hill Chardonnay Sonoma Coast white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | Fairly priced | 16% typically +4% if it rises |
| Domaine Zind Humbrecht Gewurztraminer Alsace 2023 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $35.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Du Toitskloof Sauvignon Blanc Western Cape 2025 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Trefethen Double T Chardonnay Napa Valley white · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Beringer Regional Estates Chardonnay Napa Valley 2023 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Long Shadows Poet's Leap Riesling Columbia Valley 2020 white · Washington · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hoopes Chardonnay Napa Valley 2021 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Marimar Estate Acero Unoaked Chardonnay Don Miguel Vineyard Russian River Valley 2020 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hesketh Bright Young Things Sauvignon Blanc Limestone Coast 2024 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Alexander Valley Vineyards Gewurz Gewurztraminer Mendocino County 2025 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $13.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Willamette Valley Vineyards Riesling 2019 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Saint Florin Bordeaux Blanc 2021 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $7.23 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jordan Chardonnay Russian River Valley 2021 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trefethen Estate Grown Chardonnay Oak Knoll District of Napa Valley 2021 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Ste Michelle Chardonnay Columbia Valley white · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▼ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Luciano Ercolino Le Grade Fiano di Avellino 2022 white · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cambria Estate Winery Katherine's Vineyard Chardonnay Santa Maria Valley 2022 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carlo Rossi Pink Moscato Sangria white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | ▲ 9.1% | ▲ 33.4% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Saint Florin Bordeaux Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Chardonnay Decoy Limited Sonoma Coast white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▼ 10.7% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Intensus Branco Alentejo Reserva 2020 white · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Flaneur Chardonnay La Belle Promenade Chehalem Mountains 2020 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The Retreat Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Turk Gruner Veltliner Kremser Weinberge 2022 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Giuliano Rosati Pinot Grigio Fruili white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.63 $9.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Condes de Albarei Albarino Rias Baixas 2021 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $9.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Arnold Palmer Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.74 $17.49 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| The Myth of Motu Nui Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| David Finlayson Chardonnay Stellenbosch 2023 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stuhlmuller Vineyards Chardonnay Alexander Valley 2023 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ca' Bolani Pinot Grigio Friuli 2020 white · Friuli · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine des Senechaux Chateauneuf du Pape Blanc 2020 white · Rhone · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Humble Bunch Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kiwi Gold Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.39 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
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