Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airfield Estates Cabernet Sauvignon Yakima Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| Ammunition Pinot Noir Sonoma County 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | 33% below | 1% |
| Domaine Pitault Landry La Loge Bourgueil Vieilles Vignes 2020 red · Loire · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| Jolete Pinot Noir Le Verre Cuvee Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33% below | 2% |
| Manischewitz Cream Red Concord red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.73 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 11.1% | 33% below | 1% |
| Papi Sweet Red Demi Sec Central Valley red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.99 | — | — | 33% below | 10% typically +13% if it rises |
| Starr Hill Vineyard and Winery Bailey Road Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.23 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33% below | 2% |
| Chateau Beauchene Vignobles de la Serriere Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| Chateau Gloria Saint Julien Magnum 2018 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $65.03 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| Renacer Punto Final Malbec Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| Chateau Boutillot Revelations d'Hubert de Bouard Bordeaux Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| Mas Malbec Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 1000 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 33% below | 1% |
| Charles Smith Vino Red Blend Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $6.03 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| Chateau Promis Entre Deux Mers 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33% below | <1% |
| Lungarotti Grechetto Umbria 2023 red · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% below | <1% |
| San Felice Chianti Classico 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | 33% below | 1% |
| Frontera Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | 33% below | 6% typically +4% if it rises |
| Primus The Blend Apalta 2022 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | — | — | 33% below | 1% |
| Natura Cabernet Sauvignon 375 mL red · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.99 $5.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | 1% |
| Roaming Dog Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.99 | — | — | 32% below | 1% |
| Bodega Benegas Estate Cabernet Franc Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Boutinot Les Coteaux Cotes du Rhone Villages Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Liberty Creek Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | 32% below | 4% |
| Zuccardi Q Cabernet Franc Valle de Uco 2021 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Castello di Gabbiano Cavaliere d'Oro Chianti Classico Riserva 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32% below | 1% |
| Chateau Gloria Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $38.99 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Smashberry Red Blend Paso Robles 2018 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Les Champgains Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $47.03 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Zorzettig Friulano Friuli 2021 red · Friuli · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Tenuta Ulisse Sogno di Ulisse Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2020 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $2.73 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Unapologetically Zin Zinfandel red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | 6% typically +11% if it rises |
| William Hill Estate Winery Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | ▲ 1.7% | ▲ 5.9% | 31% below | 4% |
| Chateau Mayne Guyon Blaye Cotes de Bordeaux Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Kiona Estates Cuvee Columbia Valley Red 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Franzia Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 31% below | 3% |
| Cannonball Cabernet Sauvignon 2022 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 31% below | 1% |
| Domaine de Suremain Clos l'Eveque Mercurey 1er Cru Rouge 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Jacob's Creek Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 17.5% | 30% below | 5% |
| Seven Hills Merlot Seven Hills Vineyard Walla Walla Valley 2016 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Castle Rock Pinot Noir Monterey County 2018 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $7.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30% below | <1% |
| Wine in Books Red Organic 2020 red · 3000 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Poggio Salvi Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $26.99 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Lillium Reserve Zinfandel Lodi 2020 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Michael David Winery Red Blend Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.03 $13.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | 30% below | 5% |
| Santa Ema Reserva Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo Valley 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Altesino Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Generation 1905 Grenache Vin de France 2019 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Bodegas David Moreno Rioja 2023 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Pinot Noir Dundee Hills 2018 red · Oregon · 375 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Dominique Piron Coq Leon Gamay Vin de France 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.79 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
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