Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $15.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | 1% premium | 5% |
| Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi Pinot Noir red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $15.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Argillae Orvieto Superiore 2022 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Diablo Hard Fire Red Blend 2022 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hand on Heart Alcohol Removed Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Josh Cellars Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $18.99 Sale | ▼ 4.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Kalyana Pinot Noir Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.39 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| La Ciarliana Rosso di Montepulciano red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| La Spinona Langhe Nebbiolo 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $25.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Marc Plouzeau Domaine de La Croix Les Lisons Chinon Rouge 2019 red · Loire · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery Bear Track Cabernet Sauvignon Yountville Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery State Ranch Cabernet Sauvignon Yountville Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Turley Zinfandel Fredericks Vineyard Sonoma Valley 2022 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $54.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Anne Amie Vineyards Muller Thurgau Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Ego Infinito Monastrell Jumilla 2019 red · 750 ml | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Brick and Vine Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.49 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Kaiken Indomito Malbec Mendoza 2019 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ken Wright Cellars Guadalupe Vineyard Pinot Noir 2016 red · 750 ml | $47.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Natura Organic Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 3.5% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Quadrum Red Blend Spain red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.73 $19.79 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Seven Hills Cabernet Sauvignon Walla Walla Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The Calling Pinot Noir Russian River Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $28.49 $37.99 Clearance | ▲ 4.4% | ▲ 8.6% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Thistledown Gorgeous Shiraz South Australia 2022 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $14.99 $15.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Treana Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Valo Atemporal Red Blend Conner Lee Vineyard Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.93 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Antler Ridge Winery Red Vixen red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.59 | ▲ 8.2% | ▲ 12.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Antucura Cabernet Sauvignon Mendoza 2018 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $9.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Merlot red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Bully Hill Vineyards Banty Red red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Citra Montepulciano D'Abruzzo red · Abruzzo · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.74 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Colin Barollet Pinot Noir Bourgogne 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Damien Martin Bourgogne Pinot Noir 2023 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Bousquet Malbec Tupungato Reserve 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Durigutti Cabernet Sauvignon Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Barolo Ravera 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $8.29 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Angelo Negro Serra Lupini Roero Arneis 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Anonimo Red Blend Paso Robles 2023 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Board Track Racer The Chief Cabernet Sauvignon 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chasing Rain Red Mountain Merlot 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Malbec Bordeaux Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Grevino Pinot Noir Santa Maria Valley 2020 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Insurrection Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Paradou Rolle IGP Mediterannee 2024 red · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mollydooker Two Left Feet Red Blend Australia 2022 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $27.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Montestefano 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $49.73 $82.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Samsara Pinot Noir Sta Rita Hills 2018 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $12.73 $42.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sutter Home Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| The Path Pinot Noir California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.93 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 18.6% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Twisted Cedar Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.43 $12.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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