Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orin Swift Abstract Red 2021 red · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Paul Hobbs Cabernet Sauvignon Coombsville 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| V21 Vasca Ventuno Grillo Sicilia 2020 red · Sicily · 3000 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Windisch Dornfelder Wormser Liebfrauenmorgen 2024 red · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Yellow Tail Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Bodegas Etchart Cafayate Terroir De Altura Malbec Salta 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Bellevue Peycharneau Sainte Foy Cotes de Bordeaux Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Gabaron Bordeaux Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cusumano Alta Mora Etna Rosso 2019 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine des Assalins Gigondas 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frescobaldi CastelGiocondo Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Havens Black and Blue Red Blend 2021 red · 1500 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Le Haut Medoc d'Issan Haut Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mazza Vineyards Bare Bones Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Noble Vines Marquis Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pedroncelli Mother Clone Zinfandel Dry Creek Valley 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $11.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Planet Oregon Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Smoking Loon Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 14.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Tenuta San Guido Sassicaia Bolgheri Sassicaia 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $195 $260 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wine Chat A Grown Up Stocking Stuffer Red red · 187 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 25.1% | Fairly priced | 20% typically +5% if it rises |
| 19 Crimes Cali Chill Chillable Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Chateau Phelan Segur Saint Estephe 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Culitos Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 4.0% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 14% typically +6% if it rises |
| Educated Guess Cabernet Sauvignon Napa County 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Dolcetto d'Alba 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Game Box Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.89 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Mastroberardino Aglianico Irpinia 2020 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mollydooker The Boxer Shiraz South Australia 2020 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The Path Cabernet Sauvignon California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Villa Sparina Gavi di Gavi 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zorgvliet Cabernet Sauvignon Banghoek Stellenbosch Estate 2019 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Block Nine Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Canonica a Cerreto Chianti Classico 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cappella Sant'Andre Clara Stella Vernaccia di San Gimignano 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castoro Cellars Merlot Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $10.73 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Phelan Segur Saint Estephe 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $21.93 $70.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ethic Drinks Peau A Peau Orange Vin de France 2023 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ken Wright Cellars AVA Series Pinot Noir Yamhill Carlton 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $10.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Spinona Langhe Nebbiolo 2022 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $7.73 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Morande Vitis Unica Pinot Noir Valle de Casablanca 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Yellow Tail Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.33 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bodegas Ondalan Reserva Rioja 2017 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Budureasca Wild Feteasca Neagra Romania Red 2023 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Lilian Ladouys Saint Estephe 2020 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $19.43 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau du Tertre Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $61.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Bousquet Natural Origins Malbec Mendoza Box 2021 red · Mendoza · 3000 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $33.53 $112 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Siduri Pinot Noir Santa Barbara County 2022 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Pinot Noir red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
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