Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Julia Organica Cabernet del Mercado red · 1000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.73 $14.59 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Saurus Select Malbec Patagonia 2022 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tait The Ballbuster Barossa Valley 2021 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tre Monti Campo di Mezzo Sangiovese Emilia Romagna 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ventisquero Grey Glacier Single Block Cabernet Sauvignon Trinidad Vineyard Maipo Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $7.79 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warwick The First Lady Cabernet Sauvignon Stellenbosch 2019 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wines of Illyria Stone Cuvee Herzegovina 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Shiraz red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $8.29 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Butternut Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | ▼ 5.6% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cantina Valle Tritana Montepulciano d'Abruzzo red · Abruzzo · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Cooper and Thief Bourbon Barrel Red Blend with Two Rocks Glasses Gift Set red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Mas Cremat Tamarius Organic Cotes Catalanes Rouge 2022 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ellena Giuseppe Barolo Ascheri 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mercer Subsoil Cabernet Sauvignon 2018 red · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rocky Pond Eleven Dams Red Blend 2021 red · 750 ml | $10.43 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta le Colonne Plenum Costa Toscana Rosso 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 19 Crimes Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Barefoot Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +11% if it rises |
| Bersano Generala Barbera Nizza Riserva 2017 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Buck Shack Cabernet Sauvignon Bourbon Barrel Aged Lake County 2020 red · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Canon Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2019 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $90.53 $303 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Thieuley Generation III Bordeaux Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine des Cassagnoles Reserve Selection Cuvee Gros Manseng Cotes de Gascogne 2021 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gd Vajra Dolcetto D'Alba 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Redwood Highway Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +11% if it rises |
| Simply Cabernet Sauvignon Washington State 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Spellbound Petite Sirah red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.3% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +8% if it rises |
| Weingut Heid PUR Trollinger mit Lemberger Wurttemberg 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barefoot Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Castle Rock Merlot California 2020 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Le Crock Saint Estephe 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Emiliana Novas Organic Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo Valley Gran Reserva 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $7.03 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jean Foillard Morgon Cote du Py 2020 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mitolo Jester McLaren Vale Shiraz 2019 red · McLaren Vale · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford Single Vineyard Quarry Vineyard 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pfaffl Vom Haus Muskateller Weinviertel 2022 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Skouras Moscofilero 2022 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Skyfall Vineyards Red Blend Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Three Finger Jack Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.49 $20.49 Sale | ▲ 2.5% | ▲ 2.5% | Fairly priced | 13% typically +5% if it rises |
| Yellow Tail Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Black Box Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bogle Vineyards Essential Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bota Box Breeze Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 19.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bota Box Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | ▲ 8.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Castle Rock Merlot California 2022 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Elijah by Manischewitz Cabernet Sauvignon Curico Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hahn Merlot Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mollydooker Enchanted Path Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mollydooker Two Left Feet Red Blend Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nine Hats Merlot Columbia Valley 2016 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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