Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Coppola Diamond Collection Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.49 | ▲ 2.6% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Freelander Pinot Noir 2022 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Bete Noire Cahors 2023 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Massolino Barolo Serralunga d'Alba 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Montes Alpha Merlot Colchagua Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $11.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nine Hats Malbec Columbia Valley 2016 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.63 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Roscato Rosso Dolce red · 187 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.99 $4.99 Sale | ▲ 11.1% | — | Fairly priced | 14% typically +9% if it rises |
| Submission Red Wine California 2019 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta Meraviglia Bolgheri 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.99 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $8.29 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Zuccardi Finca Piedra Infinita Malbec Paraje Altamira 2017 red · 750 ml | $44.73 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Apothic Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | ▼ 12.5% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 30% typically +4% if it rises |
| Areyna Malbec Lujan de Cuyo Mendoza Estate 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Saint Cyrgues Salamandre Costieres de Nimes Orange 2024 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Couly Dutheil Les Gravieres Chinon Rouge 2023 red · Loire · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Di Giovanna Camurria Orange Sicilia 2022 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Leymarie Gevrey Chambertin La Justice 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $41.99 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fontanabianca Barbera d'Alba Superiore 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Francis Coppola Director's Cut Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.49 | ▲ 2.1% | ▲ 11.4% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| GD Vajra Dolcetto d'Alba 2022 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Giovanni Rosso Nebbiolo Langhe 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Marquis de Calon Segur Saint Estephe 2021 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Ragose Valpolicella Ripasso Classico Superiore 2017 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Plouzeau Domaine de La Croix Chinon Rouge Les Lisons 2022 red · Loire · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Six Hats Pinotage South Africa 2023 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The Path Merlot California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.93 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Troublemaker Red Blend Central Coast Blend 16 NonVintage red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.73 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Willm Gentil Alsace Reserve 2021 red · Alsace · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 14 Hands Hot to Trot Smooth Red Blend Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| 6 Mile Cellars Derby Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.19 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Butternut Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | ▼ 5.6% | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Dona Paula Estate Black Edition Bold Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 $14.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 13% typically +7% if it rises |
| Finca Mendel Malbec Lujan de Cuyo Mendoza Estate 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kakhuri Gvinis Marani Saperavi Kindzmarauli Orshimo Georgia 2020 red · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Les Coteaux Tufiers Vouvray Demi Sec 2021 red · Loire · 750 ml | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.89 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Raeburn Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Rapido Sangiovese Pugila 2021 red · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Storypoint Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Wilhelm Walch Prendo Pinot Nero Vignetti delle Dolomiti 2023 red · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bibbiano Chianti Classico 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Canyon Road Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.23 $10.89 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dark Rock Cabernet Sauvignon Horse Heaven Hills 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| FitVine Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | ▲ 5.9% | ▲ 16.1% | Fairly priced | 18% typically +4% if it rises |
| La Cave les Coteaux du Rhone Tradition Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2024 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Ladeiras Do Xil Gaba Do Xil Valdeorras Tinto 2019 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lost Hog Zinfandel Lake County 2019 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Luis Felipe Edwards 360 Series Mountain Red Blend Colchagua Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $14.99 $16.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mon Frere Pinot Noir 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| R Stuart Big Fire Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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