Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Crimes Liquid Death Severed Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Bogle Vineyards Old Vine Zinfandel red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Castoro Cellars Reserve Charbono Whale Rock Vineyard Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franzia Pinot Noir Carmenere red · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.49 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 15.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lydian Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mark West Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 7.1% | ▲ 25.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Rombauer Vineyards Zinfandel 2019 red · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| TOP SOURCE Winery Red Blend Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta Ulisse Amaranta Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2018 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The Prisoner Wine Company Saldo Zinfandel California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $31.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +6% if it rises |
| Weingut Heid Lemberger Gutswein Wurttember 2018 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Brooks Winery Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2024 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $28.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Casa Silva Carmenere Los Lingues Colchagua Estate 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $5.63 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Pegau Cuvee Maclura Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $5.63 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cupcake Light Hearted Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Damien Martin Pinot Noir Bourgogne 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Firefly Ridge Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +9% if it rises |
| Franzia Burgundy red · Burgundy · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Ita Merlot Walla Walla Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Le Lion de La Fleur de Bouard Lalande de Pomerol 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lionel Osmin and Cie Ville de Causses Malbec Vin de France 2020 red · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Moillard Grivot Pinot Noir Bourgogne 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $15.99 $18.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Periodic Pinot Noir California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Radio Boka Tempranillo de la Tierre Castilla red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Seigneur d'Aiguilhe Cotes de Castillon 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $14.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Substance Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Vint by Robert Mondavi Private Selection Cabernet Sauvignon Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.59 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Warwick Three Cape Ladies Red Blend Stellenbosch 2017 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| le Fat Bastard Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +6% if it rises |
| Angels and Cowboys Proprietary Red Sonoma 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bota Box Zinfandel red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | ▲ 8.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Clos Cuirouilh Jurancon Sec 2018 red · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cora Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2021 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Decoy Red Wine Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.89 | 0.0% | ▼ 8.4% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Domaine Bousquet Organic Virgen Cabernet Sauvignon Tupungato 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison l'Envoye Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +4% if it rises |
| Penfolds Bin 28 Shiraz Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $29.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Poggio Salvi Brunello di Montalcino Riserva 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $47.99 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia Organic Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.49 | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| The Dreaming Tree Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 5.9% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Truchard Merlot Carneros Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $34.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Casa Santos Lima Red Blend Lisboa Box 2019 red · 3000 ml | $25.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castle Rock Merlot Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Bete Noire Cahors 2022 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Croix Ducru Beaucaillou Saint Julien 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $64.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lisini Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Massimo Rivetti Froi Barbera d'Alba 2022 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $15.99 $16.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Poggio Anima Asmodeus Nero d'Avola Sicilia red · Sicily · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +23% if it rises |
| Santa Julia Flores Negras Cabernet Franc Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sea Smoke Southing Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2022 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $69.03 $111 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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