Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Vintage-dated premium and luxury wines, ranked by the model's chance of a list-price rise within a year. These are retail shelf prices at a state retailer, not auction or secondary-market prices, so treat them as a signal of retail pricing momentum rather than investment returns.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trimbach Pinot Noir Alsace Reserve 2018 red · Alsace · 750 ml | $8.23 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Turk vom Blauer Zweigelt Eiswein Niederosterreich 2018 red · 375 ml | $11.73 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Valoria Tempranillo Rioja Gran Reserva 2011 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $11.23 $35.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Boedecker Cellars Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2017 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gaintus Radical Sumoll 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Il Carnasciale Ottantadue Valdarno di Sopra 2018 red · 750 ml | $17.73 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jacoby Graacher Domprobst Spatburgunder Mosel 2018 red · Mosel · 750 ml | $7.93 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mt Beautiful Pinot Noir North Canterbury 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 46% premium | <1% |
| Northstar Walla Walla Red Blend 2015 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.23 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 37% below | <1% |
| Ontanon Rioja Reserva 2015 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $16.19 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stark Conde Cabernet Sauvignon Jonkershock Valley Stellenbosch 2018 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Couly Dutheil Baronnie Madeleine Chinon Rouge 2018 red · Loire · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Faustino I Grand Reserva Rioja 2011 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $23.99 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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