Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crios Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.99 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Damien Martin Bourgogne Pinot Noir 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| David Arthur Proprietary Red Wine Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Folias de Baco Uivo Rabigato 2023 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hess Lion Tamer Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Pinot Noir Bourgogne Rouge 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mollydooker Carnival Of Love Shiraz Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford DeCarle Vineyard 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $89.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 14 Hands Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▼ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Black Pearl Mischief Maker Red Blend Paarl 2021 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodega Norton DOC Malbec Lujan de Cuyo 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodega Renacer Repasso Malbec Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bogle Vineyards Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Bootleg Red Wine Napa County 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| COS Frappatto Terre Siciliane 2023 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $32.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dolly Pinot Noir California 2023 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Clare JC Nebbiolo 2021 red · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hands of Time Pinot Noir Sonoma County 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sand Point Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Silver Palm Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 689 Cellars Killer Drop Red Blend 2021 red · 750 ml | $22.99 $24.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Canneto Vino Nobile di Montepulciano Riserva 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Beychevelle Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $65.03 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Montrose La Dame de Montrose Saint Estephe 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $38.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Col d'Orcia Brunello di Montalcino 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $41.13 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pagliarese Chianti Classico Riserva 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Produttori di Manduria Electric Bee Primitivo red · Puglia · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| V18 Vasca Diciotto Nero d'Avola Terre Siciliane 2020 red · Sicily · 3000 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 19 Crimes Cali Smooth Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Austin Hope Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2019 red · Paso Robles · 1500 ml | $65.03 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Borsao Tres Picos Red Campo de Borja 2021 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Castaing Cote de Bourg Bordeaux Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Latour Martillac Pessac Leognan Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cora Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2019 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Huet Le Haut Lieu Vouvray Sec 2023 red · Loire · 750 ml | $26.99 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de Suremain La Bondue Mercurey 1er Cru Rouge 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $13.93 $46.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Redwood Highway Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +11% if it rises |
| Saviah Cellars The Jack Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Simple Life Cabernet Sauvignon 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| WT Vintners Damavian Syrah Les Collines Walla Walla Valley 2017 red · Washington · 750 ml | $17.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barefoot Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +11% if it rises |
| Calera Ryan Vineyard Pinot Noir Mt Harlan 2017 red · 750 ml | $37.53 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Campo Viejo Tempranillo Rioja red · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.49 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Chateau Coutet Barsac 2018 red · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $17.53 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dusky Goose Pinot Noir Dundee Hills 2015 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frescobaldi Castelgiocondo Brunello Di Montalcino 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vaona Pegrandi Amarone della Valpolicella Classico 2016 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 111 Rioja Reserva 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Andeluna 1300 Malbec Uco Valley 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Binyamina Moshava Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
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