Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoller Winery Estate Chardonnay Dundee Hills 2021 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Y Vinedos Valderiz Ribera del Duero 2020 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Box Wize Rose California rosé · California Central Valley · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1% | Fairly priced | 16% typically +5% if it rises |
| Chateau de Paillet Quancard Cotes De Bordeaux red · Bordeaux · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.49 $13.49 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Dark Horse Double Down Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| First Drop Mother's Milk Shiraz Barossa 2021 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Forge Cellars Dry Riesling Classique Finger Lakes 2021 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kendall Jackson Vintner's Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 $22.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 4.5% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Michael David Winery Rose Lodi 2022 rosé · Lodi · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mylonas Assyrtiko Attika 2021 white · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas CARO Amancaya Reserva Red Blend Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castle Rock Chardonnay Central Coast 2019 white · Central Coast · 750 ml | $5.03 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Ste Michelle Riesling Columbia Valley white · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Clay Shannon Betsy Sauvignon Blanc Lake County 2023 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Columbia Winery Chardonnay Columbia Valley 2021 white · Washington · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Corbett Canyon Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 5.9% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Creative Juice Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.43 $7.29 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Finca Nueva Tempranillo Rioja Crianza 2017 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franklin Hill Vineyards Carnival White Blend white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Our Daily Cab Organic Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +10% if it rises |
| Ruhlmann Cuvee Mosaique Pinot Noir Alsace 2021 red · Alsace · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ventisquero Grey Glacier Cabernet Sauvignon Trinidad Vineyard Single Block Maipo 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| William Hill Estate Winery Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | ▼ 4.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Z Alexander Brown Uncaged Sauvignon Blanc North Coast white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.84 $17.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 10.6% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Anthony Road Riesling Finger Lakes 2021 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| El Coto Blanco Rioja white · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Fleur Haut Gaussens Bordeaux Superieur 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lone Birch Cabernet Sauvignon Yakima Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pierre Amadieu Roulepierre Cotes du Rhone Blanc 2024 white · Rhone · 750 ml | $13.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Real Nice Winemakers Into the Woods Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| San Salvatore Vetere Paestum Rosato Campania 2023 rosé · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sokol Blosser Evolution White Blend Oregon white · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| XXL Moscato Blackberry white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| Bertani Valpolicella Ripasso 2021 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cantina San Paolo Fiano di Avelino 2020 white · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Castle Rock Chardonnay Central Coast 2023 white · Central Coast · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Reynier Bordeaux Superior Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| David Finlayson The Pepper Pot Red Blend Coastal Region South Africa 2019 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Freire Lobo Vigno Red 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Grand Courtage Grand Cuvee Brut Rose Vin de France sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.23 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Little Cricket Gruner Veltliner Pannon 2021 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lucashof Riesling 2022 white · 750 ml | $4.43 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Montes Alpha Cabernet Sauvignon Colchagua Valley 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Valiant Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.29 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Warwick The First Lady Pinotage Stellenbosch 2019 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Zardetto Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +6% if it rises |
| Aldeya Garnacha Carinena 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Biale Vineyards Zinfandel Party Line North Coast 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ca Furlan Adriana Sparkling Moscato sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Clos La Coutale Cahors 2022 red · 750 ml | $5.33 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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