Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Marc Burgaud Beaujolais Morgon Cote du Py 2023 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Somos Cabernet Franc McLaren Vale 2019 red · McLaren Vale · 750 ml | $7.73 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stag's Leap Wine Cellars Surber Vineyard Cabernet Sauvignon Calistoga 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $66.03 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ventisquero Grey Glacier Single Block Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo Valley 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Arnoux et Fils Vieux Clocher Symphonie des Galets Chateauneuf du Pape 2023 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $29.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| CK Mondavi Family Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.59 $16.59 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 10.7% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Canvasback Cabernet Sauvignon Red Mountain 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Canyon Oaks Cabernet Sauvingnon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.76 $11.53 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Concha Y Toro the Wine Malbec Colchagua Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Eric et Joel Durand Premices Cornas 2020 red · 750 ml | $9.93 $36.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Beaune Theurons 1er Cru Rouge 2020 red · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Poggio Landi Brunello di Montalcino 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Robert Mondavi Private Selection 100 Percent Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| San Felice Il Grigio Chianti Classico Gran Selezione 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Zuccardi Serie A Malbec Valle de Uco 2022 red · 750 ml | $2.53 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Aubichon Cellars Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2018 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Casa Silva Gran Terroir de los Andes Carmenere Colchagua Valley 2023 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Bel Orme Tronquoy de Lalande 2019 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dunham Syrah Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elios Modus Bibendi Rosso Terre Siciliane 2019 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Francis Coppola Diamond Collection Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.49 | ▲ 2.6% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| House Wine Red Blend Box red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| J Lohr Los Osos Merlot Paso Robles red · Paso Robles · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Menage a Trois Sweet Collection Dolce Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Rodney Strong Red Blend Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 $22.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +4% if it rises |
| Septima Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Vigne de Saint Germain Pinot Noir Bourgogne 2024 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bodega El Porvenir Amauta Absoluto Malbec Cafayette Salta 2020 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodega Norton DOC Malbec Lujan De Cuyo 2019 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine du Beauregard Maranges Cote de Beaune Rouge 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $19.79 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Barbera D' Alba 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lapostolle Cuvee Alexandre Cabernet Sauvignon Apalta Valley 2020 red · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lemelson Vineyards Thea's Selection Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Winery The Estates Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.93 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rodney Strong Cabernet Sauvignon Knights Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $31.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Salvestrin Cabernet Sauvignon Dr Crane Vineyard St Helena Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $27.73 $94.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The Vice The House Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $34.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Cakebread Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.93 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Centerstone Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Tour Chapoux Bordeaux Rouge 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $7.79 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Durigutti HD Malbec Patagonia 2024 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Horny Owl Shiraz Western Cape 2021 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.33 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Marietta Cellars Christo Red Blend North Coast 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Orin Swift Machete 2019 red · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Paul Hobbs Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $20.73 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Saintayme Saint Emilion 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sean Minor Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2024 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $17.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Carpineta Fontalpino Chianti Classico Fontalpino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $14.73 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Coutet Barsac 2021 red · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $10.43 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Coutet Barsac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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