Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carracuesta Rioja Alavesa 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Lost and Found Syrah The Nines Vineyard Sonoma Mountain 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Orin Swift Sign of the Times Red 2023 red · 750 ml | $29.99 | — | — | 41% below | 1% |
| Chateau Brun Despagne Querre Bordeaux Superieur 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Elk Cove Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Il Molino di Grace il Volano Toscana Rosso 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Il Poggio Aglianico Sannio 2017 red · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 41% below | <1% |
| Scrimaglio Barolo 2016 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Gundlach Bundschu Dry Gewerztraminer Estate Vineyard Sonoma Valley Sonoma County 2022 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $14.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Havens Cabernet Sauvignon Yountville 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | <1% |
| Canyon Oaks Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.65 $7.30 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 41% below | 2% |
| Jaqk Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 41% below | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Conde Valdemar Tempranillo Rioja Crianza 2019 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $6.59 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Il Poggio Aglianico Sannio 2018 red · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Casa Primicia Rioja Crianza 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Conn Creek Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40% below | <1% |
| Chateau Lilian Ladouys Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $32.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Josh Cellars Craftsman's Collection Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.45 $10.91 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Alexander Valley Vineyards Sin Zin Zinfandel Sonoma County 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Clos Marsalette Pessac Leognan Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| City Limits Detour Red Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Hearst Ranch Winery Randolph Red Wine Paso Robles 2021 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Chateau Prieure Lichine Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $44.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Bodegas Ondalan Crianza Rioja 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Silver Totem Cabernet Sauvignon Wallula Vineyard Horse Heaven Hills 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | <1% |
| Bodegas Engueras Pure Est Tempranillo 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Chateau Prieure Lichine Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $59.99 $64.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 39% below | 2% |
| Guarachi Wine Partners Manadero Garnacha DO Carinena 2018 red · 750 ml | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Ken Wright Cellars Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2020 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Vinedos Juegos Clasicos Escoba Malbec Mendoza Reserve red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.89 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.2% | 39% below | 16% typically +10% if it rises |
| Silenus Winery Tyros Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $9.93 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Liberty Creek Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | 39% below | 4% |
| Red Quartz Pinot Noir Casablanca Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Il Poggio Guerriero Falanghina Beneventano 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | <1% |
| Duplin Black River Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | 38% below | 6% typically +11% if it rises |
| Ken Wright Cellars Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Il Poggio Guerriero Falanghina Beneventano 2020 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Le Clos d'Augustin Pinot Noir Bourgogne 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $9.03 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Chateau Lilian Ladouys Saint Estephe 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $19.73 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Domaine Durieu Chateauneuf du Pape 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Courtyard Winery Twisted Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.39 $11.39 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.6% | 38% below | 5% |
| MoonTree Syrah Pays d'Oc 2020 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 38% below | <1% |
| Johnson Estate House Red Lake Erie red · Lake Erie · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | 38% below | 4% |
| Papi Cabernet Sauvignon Demi Sec Central Valley 2023 red · 750 ml | $6.99 | — | — | 37% below | 2% |
| Annick Bachelet Morgon Les Charmes 2020 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $7.53 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 37% below | <1% |
| Chateau Prieure Lichine Margaux Magnum 2018 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $70.03 $140 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 37% below | <1% |
| Boomtown by Dusted Valley Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $11.99 | — | — | 37% below | <1% |
| Parker Estate Cool Climate Cabernet Sauvignon Coonawarra 2021 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | 37% below | 1% |
| Airfield Estates Cabernet Sauvignon Yakima Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 37% below | <1% |
| Benigna's Traminette 2022 red · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 37% below | <1% |
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