Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quattro Mani Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2020 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Roger Goulart Gran Reserva Josep Valls Cava Extra Brut 2020 sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Amisfield Pinot Noir Rose Central Otago 2022 rosé · 750 ml | $5.23 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Flat Top Hills Cellars Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Fre Pinot Grigio Alcohol Removed Nonalcoholic white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +11% if it rises |
| Jacob's Creek Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.39 $9.39 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 17.5% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Airfield Estates Dauntless Red Blend Yakima Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bota Brick Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.69 $11.39 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.6% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Moon Tree Moscato d'Asti sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mouton Cadet Bordeaux Rouge red · Bordeaux · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Richards Wild Irish Rose rosé · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | ▲ 9.1% | ▲ 33.4% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Underwood Pinot Noir Oregon 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bieler Family Born to Run Cabernet Sauvignon California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.33 $11.39 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.6% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Cavit Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | ▲ 10.0% | ▲ 22.2% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Domaine La Cadeniere Leonie Coteaux d'Aix en Provence Rose 2022 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $8.33 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Freixenet Cordon Negro Cava Brut sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 $16.99 Sale | ▲ 2.4% | ▲ 6.3% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| La Chapelle de Lafaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2017 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Loubadere Cotes de Gascogne Blanc 2020 white · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sokol Blosser Evolution Big Time Red 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cupcake Vineyards Pinot Noir Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▼ 7.1% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Greenock Creek Shiraz Barossa Valley 2019 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| J Wilkes Pinot Blanc Santa Maria Valley 2020 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sokol Blosser Riesling Evolution white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Terra Fageto Rosso Piceno 2022 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bonny Doon Vin Gris Rose 2024 rosé · 750 ml | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Christophe Thorigny Vouvray Sec 2021 red · Loire · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elizabeth Rose Chockablock Napa Valley 2022 rosé · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lungarotti L'Um Umbria Rosso 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nissley Niagara White white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| The Kinker Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Robles The Arborist Red Blend Paso Robles 2019 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Deerfoot Vineyards and Winery Country Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | — | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 18% typically +8% if it rises |
| El Porvenir Laborum Single Vineyard Malbec Cafayate Valley 2022 red · 750 ml | $16.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Massimo Rivetti Froi Barbera d'Alba Superiore 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $8.73 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penfolds Maxs Cabernet Shiraz South Australia 2021 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $16.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sierra Cantabria Crianza 2020 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yori Wine Cellars Famiglia Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Tamarack Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taverna da Aldeia Dao Red 2021 red · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Marsala dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| BenMarco Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau D'Emeringes Beaujolais Villages Vieilles Vignes Rouge 2022 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fish Eye Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.99 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Garageland Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lone Birch Cabernet Sauvignon Yakima Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Chateau Carlmagnus Fronsac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $6.43 $24.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Ste Michelle Gewurztraminer Columbia Valley white · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Dusted Valley Boomtown Red Blend Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stationmaster Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.79 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
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