Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Vieille Ferme Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Matias Riccitelli The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From the Tree Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chatel Buis Chardonnay Macon Villages 2023 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Golden Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Trambusti Sentimento Toscana Rosso red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +5% if it rises |
| Black Box Merlot red · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +12% if it rises |
| Bully Hill Vineyards Goat White white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.89 | 0.0% | ▲ 14.8% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Feuerheerd's Douro Red Anchor Wrap 2019 red · Douro · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Meu Albarino Ribeiro 2022 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sea Pearl Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stoller Winery Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trisaetum Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Weis Cabernet Franc Finger Lakes 2023 red · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $20.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau D'Emeringes Beaujolais Villages Vieilles Vignes Blanc 2021 white · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Coelho Bunny Cuvee Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Harvey's Bristol Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $19.99 Sale | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 17.7% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +10% if it rises |
| Vinos de Potrero Malbec Uco Valley World Cup Edition 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Barefoot Bubbly Brut Rose sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.49 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Board Track Racer The Vincent Red Blend 2019 red · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calvet Sauvignon Blanc Touraine Loire Valley white · Loire · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +8% if it rises |
| Chateau Le Puy Duc des Nauves Vin de France Rouge 2018 red · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Golden Gate Cellars Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $10.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hogue Cellars Riesling Columbia Valley 2022 white · Washington · 750 ml | $7.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta le Colonne Vermentino Costa Toscana 2023 white · Tuscany · 750 ml | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zenato Alanera Rosso Veronese 2018 red · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Goretti Montefalco Sagrantino 2016 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jean Luc Colombo Les Girelles Picpoul de Pinet 2022 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| King of Stones Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $11.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Krasno Sauvignonasse Slovenia 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pradorey Finca Valdelayegua Crianza 2022 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Zuccardi Q Cabernet Sauvignon Valle de Uco 2019 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Finca Decero Cabernet Sauvignon Agrelo 2019 red · 750 ml | $9.59 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frey Organic Natural White Mendocino County white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Les Anges Cuvee Reserve Methode Traditionnelle Brut Vin de France sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Raymond Reserve Selection Chardonnay Napa Valley 2020 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Seculo Mencia Castilla y Leon 2023 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Alexandria Nicole Cellars Adulting Sparkling Rose sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Gatao Sparkling Wine Reserve sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Matetic Corralillo Syrah San Antonio Valley 2017 red · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Neleman All Day Long Macabeo Valencia 2021 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Madone Beaujolais Villages Le Perreon 2022 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| La Vieille Ferme Rouge red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Maison De Madeleine Pinot Noir 2024 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Green Quartz Sauvignon Blanc Casablanca Valley 2023 white · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Korbel Brut California Champagne sparkling · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $18.99 Sale | ▲ 5.6% | ▲ 18.8% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +5% if it rises |
| Korbel Sweet Cuvee California Champagne sparkling · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | ▲ 5.6% | ▲ 18.8% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +5% if it rises |
| Bodega Norton Malbec Mendoza Reserva red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▼ 36.9% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chocovine Coconut and White Chocolate white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +9% if it rises |
| Dezzani Barbera d'Asti Superiore 2023 sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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