Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WALT Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $13.93 $43.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| PlumpJack Estate Merlot Oakville 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $47.99 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Ruffino Chianti Classico red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Bodegas Vegalfaro Caprasia Anfora Bobal Crianza Utiel Requena 2020 red · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Spinona Barolo Bergera 2016 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaulieu Vineyard Tapestry Reserve Red Wine Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $36.03 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| E Guigal Chateau d'Ampuis Cote Rotie 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $200 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Fess Parker Frontier Red Lot 211 Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Gai'a Monograph Agiorgitiko Peloponnese 2021 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wildfern Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cantine Leuci Primile Primitivo Salento Rosso 2022 red · Puglia · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Curriola Tinto Tejo 2021 red · 750 ml | $2.93 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hermann J Wiemer Magdalena Vineyard Cabernet Franc Finger Lakes 2022 red · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $26.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pinhal da Torre Alqueve Tradicional Red 2020 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Recanati David's Vineyard Cabernet Sauvignon Upper Galilee Reserve 2019 red · 750 ml | $31.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Christopher Michael Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| La Bastide Saint Dominique Chateauneuf du Pape 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lyngrove Collection Pinotage Stellenbosch 2020 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $6.53 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Pinot Noir red · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +12% if it rises |
| Chateau Leoville Barton Saint Julien Magnum 2020 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $168 $280 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Talbot Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Diemersdal Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Western Cape 2023 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.33 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Long Shadows Pirouette Red Blend Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sunny with a Chance of Flowers Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.49 | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +7% if it rises |
| The Calling Pinot Noir Sunnyview Vineyard Sonoma Coast 2017 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $35.73 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Three Rivers Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vignobles Boissonneau Les Geais Abouriou Cotes du Marmandais 2021 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vino San Estaben Malbec Reserve red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Fontareche Vieilles Vignes Corbieres Rouge 2020 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Daniel Pollier Macon Fuisse 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Three Rivers River Red Blend Columbia Valley 2017 red · Washington · 750 ml | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zenato Alanera Rosso Veronese 2019 red · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bar Dog Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.83 $14.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 12.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Carpineto Vino Nobile di Montepulciano Riserva 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $10.43 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cigar Old Vine Zinfandel Lodi 2020 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $9.23 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Concha y Toro Marques de Casa Concha Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo Valley or 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| La Croix Ducru Beaucaillou St Julien 2021 red · 750 ml | $19.93 $67.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Milbrandt Family Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.03 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Catena Zapata Nicasia Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $59.39 $98.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $177 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Domaine Bousquet Malbec Tupungato 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $7.79 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hahn Pinot Noir Monterey County red · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $15.99 Sale | ▼ 9.6% | ▼ 5.9% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Ignacio Marin Old Vine Garnacha Costers Del Serge 2015 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| J Bookwalter Readers Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jug and Barrel Red Blend Bourbon Barrel Aged red · 1000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Zuccardi Concreto Malbec Paraje Altamira 2019 red · 750 ml | $35.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bar Dog Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $14.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 12.3% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Corbett Canyon Merlot Central Valley red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.63 $12.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 25.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gnarly Head Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.49 | ▲ 3.8% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Ogier La Serine Cote Rotie 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
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