Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City Limits The Citizen Red Blend Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| First Drop Mother's Milk Shiraz Barossa Valley 2019 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hierogram Zinfandel Vineyard Block No 8 Lodi 2021 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Salomon Estate Norwood Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon Adelaide 2018 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Au Contraire Pinot Noir Lawler Vineyard Carneros 2015 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chaddsford Sunset Blush rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.49 | 0.0% | ▲ 17.4% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| First Pick Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.39 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +9% if it rises |
| Nurnberger Markt Gluhwein Germany Red red · 1000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 33.4% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Piccini Chianti Orange Label red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Seghesio Family Vineyards Zinfandel Sonoma County 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $16.43 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stephanie et Arnaud Celliers des Marnes Dezat Menetou Salon 2021 red · Loire · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau D'Emeringes Beaujolais Villages Vieilles Vignes Rouge 2021 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franzia White Zinfandel rosé · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 50.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Jean Marc Burgaud Beaujolais Lantignie 2022 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Seifried Sauvignon Blanc Nelson 2023 white · 750 ml | $8.73 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sforno Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.69 $11.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Susana Balbo Signature Malbec Mendoza 2018 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Familia Chavarri Izarbe Rioja Reserva 2014 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $17.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hunter's Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| I Greppi Greppicante Bolgheri Rosso 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Laurenz V Singing Gruner Veltliner Niederosterreich 2021 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Matteo Braidot Pinot Grigio Friuli 2020 white · Friuli · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vireton Pinot Gris by Archery Summit Willamette Valley 2022 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.63 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pinhal da Torre Resoluto 2015 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Langhe Nebbiolo 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Harken Winemaker's Select Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.25 $10.91 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lange Chardonnay Classique Willamette Valley 2022 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $13.13 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pierre Amadieu Roulepierre Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2023 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $13.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yarden Pinot Gris Golan Heights 2018 white · 750 ml | $4.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Clos Pegase Vineyard Mitsuko's Chardonnay Carneros 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $14.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bottega Gold Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 187 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $1.43 $4.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Grand Metairie Entre Deux Mers Blanc 2018 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Fidelitas Winery m100 Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pannonhalmi Foapstag Tricollis Rose Hungary 2020 rosé · 750 ml | $9.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bailly Lapierre Sauvignon Blanc Saint Bris 2023 white · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Banfi Centine Pinot Grigio Toscana 2020 white · Tuscany · 750 ml | $5.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bruno by Karthauserhof Riesling Kabinett Feinherb 2021 white · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Solena Estate Pinot Noir Grande Cuvee Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Triacca La Madonnina Chianti Classico Riserva 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chapirete Seleccion Verdejo Rueda 2022 white · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Carmes de Rieussec Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| GD Vajra Langhe Nebbiolo 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jacoby Dornfelder Rheinhessen 2021 red · Rheinhessen / Pfalz · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Liberty Creek Chardonnay white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +12% if it rises |
| Remhoogte Soaring Eagle Red Blend Stellenbosch 2020 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Private Selection Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | ▼ 7.7% | ▼ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Sleight of Hand Cellars Spellbinder Red Blend Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Willm Riesling Kirchberg de Barr Alsace Grand Cru 2017 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Xalo Bahia de Denia Moscatel Alicante 2023 dessert · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Haut Prieur La Croix Blaye Cotes de Bordeaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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