Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disznoko Tokaji 5 Puttonyos 2013 dessert · 500 ml | $32.39 $53.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Florio Vecchioflorio Marsala Superiore Sweet dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 7.1% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +3% if it rises |
| Taylor Sherry Cream dessert · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Graham's Six Grapes Porto Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Lustau Papirusa Manzanilla Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +6% if it rises |
| Botani Old Vine Moscatel dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 10 Year Old Gift Set dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $36.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Sherry Dry dessert · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Lustau Los Arcos Amontillado Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +6% if it rises |
| Quinta da Pacheca Late Bottled Port 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $25.99 $27.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hartley And Gibson Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Sandeman Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | ▲ 9.1% | ▲ 41.2% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Taylor Port Black dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +6% if it rises |
| Cockburn's Special Reserve Ruby Port with 2 Glasses Gift Set dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Maynard's Tawny Port 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $59.99 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Disznoko Tokaji 5 Puttonyos 2012 dessert · 500 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chocolate Bar Port Red Wine dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Rozes Infanta Isabel Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 375 ml | $59.99 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alvear Fino Sherry Montilla Moriles dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2019 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $22.49 $37.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cockburn's Fine Ruby Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.6% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Fonseca Bin 27 Reserve Port Gift Tin dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $20.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Christian Brothers Ruby Port California dessert · California Central Valley · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 4.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +7% if it rises |
| Savory and James Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Puklus Pinceszet Tokaji 6 Puttonyos 2017 dessert · 500 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $23.99 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Savory and James Deluxe Amontillado Medium Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Sercial Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +10% if it rises |
| Maynard's Tawny Port 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Williams and Humbert Dry Sack Sherry Medium Dry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | ▲ 7.3% | ▲ 11.8% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +4% if it rises |
| Chateau Bastor Lamontagne Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Tio Pepe Fino Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Oloroso 15 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Alvear Cream Sherry Montilla Moriles dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Delaforce His Eminence's Choice Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Barnard Griffin Syrah Port Columbia Valley 2021 dessert · Washington · 500 ml | $11.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Delaforce Curious and Ancient Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Croft Pink Port Douro Valley Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Harsanyi Ciroka Dry Furmint Single Vineyard Tokaji Hungary White 2023 dessert · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Blandy's Bual Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Presidential Tawny Port 20 Year Old Ships Decanter dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $35.03 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lustau Peninsula Palo Cortado Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 $24.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Pedro Ximenez 15 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Real Companhia Velha Porto Malvasia White dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.03 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Lustau Don Nuno Oloroso Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
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