Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Valley Vineyards Syrah Alexander Valley 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franzia Rose rosé · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.49 $4.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 11.1% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Bel Colle Nuwanda Barbera d'Asti Superiore 2023 sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml | $11.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pera Doce Premium Tinto Alentejano 2021 red · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Talbott Chardonnay Kali Hart white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 5.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Ballatore Gran Spumante sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 18.2% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Luigi Einaudi Vigna Tecc Dogliani Superiore 2018 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pagos del Rey Condado de Oriza Ribera del Duero Gran Reserva 2014 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| WillaJory Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pera Doce Premium Tinto Alentejano 2020 red · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chalk Hill Chardonnay Sonoma Coast white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | Fairly priced | 16% typically +4% if it rises |
| Cheval Quancard Cuvee Clemence Entre Deux Mers 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Infinito Winemaker's Selection Malbec Mendoza 2018 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Avantis Estate Malagousia Evia 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.03 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cusumano Insolia Sicilia 2021 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Famiglia Bruno Langhe Nebbiolo 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Paradis le Domaine Rose Coteaux d'Aix en Provence 2023 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Valoria Tempranillo Rioja Reserva 2014 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $11.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Arbuckle Ridge Morro Rock GSM Paso Robles 2023 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Du Toitskloof Sauvignon Blanc Western Cape 2025 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Viu Manent Red Blend Colchagua Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| 7Cellars The Farm Collection Pinot Noir Monterey County 2021 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jim Barry The Lodge Hill Shiraz Clare Valley 2021 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trefethen Double T Chardonnay Napa Valley white · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Beringer Regional Estates Chardonnay Napa Valley 2023 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Clos Pegase Rose Napa Valley 2020 rosé · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Long Shadows Poet's Leap Riesling Columbia Valley 2020 white · Washington · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau de Pampelonne Cotes de Provence Rose 2021 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cune Bela Ribera del Duero Tinto 2021 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jacques Depagneux Cuvee Louis Beaujolais Vieilles Vignes 2020 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $11.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| David Finlayson Pepper Pot Coastal Region 2022 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| DiamAndes Perlita Malbec Syrah Uco Valley 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Imagery Elle Street Art Cabernet Sauvignon 2023 red · 750 ml | $11.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mosquita Muerta Cordero con Piel de Lobo Malbec Lujan de Cuyo 2019 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Wild Hills Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine De La Chezatte Bulles de Caillottes Extra Brut sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Hoopes Chardonnay Napa Valley 2021 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Marimar Estate Acero Unoaked Chardonnay Don Miguel Vineyard Russian River Valley 2020 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tagaro Sei Caselle Negroamaro Salice Salentino 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Boutinot La Cote Sauvage Cairanne 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Villa San Juliette Chorum Red Wine Paso Robles 2017 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodega Malma Correntoso Malbec Patagonia 2024 red · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Brooks Winery Pinot Noir Rose Willamette Valley 2022 rosé · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fabrice Larochette La Grande Bruyere Macon Fuisse 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Southern Gothic Collection Poor Boy Calatayud 2020 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $20.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Vincens Origine Malbec Cahors 2022 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lunadoro Pagliareto Vino Nobile di Montepulciano 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.03 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sunwine Tsinandali Georgia 2018 red · 750 ml | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alessandro e Gian Natale Fantino Rosso dei Dardi Vino Rosso Italia 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hesketh Bright Young Things Sauvignon Blanc Limestone Coast 2024 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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