Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20261008-061600
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Calling Charles Heintz Vineyard Chardonnay Russian River Valley Sonoma County 2021 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $41.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 75% premium | <1% |
| Jarvis Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2015 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $220 | 0.0% | — | 75% premium | <1% |
| Crown Point Cabernet Sauvignon Happy Canyon of Santa Barbara 2017 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $89.93 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Secret Desire White Mocha American Cream white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 76% premium | <1% |
| Bedrock Wine Co Bedrock Vineyard Heritage Red Sonoma Valley 2023 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 76% premium | 1% |
| Bodegas Luis Alegre Parcela No 5 Rioja 2019 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| G H Mumm Grand Cordon Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 33.3% | 76% premium | 1% |
| Penfolds Bin 407 Cabernet Sauvignon South Australia 2019 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dinastia Vivanco Rioja Brunes 2021 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 76% premium | <1% |
| La Mejorada Las Cercas Castilla Y Leon 2015 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $9.93 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Matthews Cuvee Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Opus One Red Wine Rutherford 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $455 | — | — | 76% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Poujeaux Moulis en Medoc 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $37.43 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Marietta Cellars Game Trail Cabernet Sauvignon Yorkville Highlands 2018 red · 750 ml | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Baia Krakhuna White Blend Imereti Georgia 2023 white · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Hearst Ranch Winery Lone Tree Cabernet Franc Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Silenus Cabernet Sauvignon Oak Knoll District of Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards The Discussion Red Wine Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $97.03 $187 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Brane Cantenac Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $32.93 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Pazo Senorans Albarino Rias Baixas 2024 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $32.99 | — | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Boscarelli Sotto Casa Vino Nobile di Montepulciano Riserva 2015 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $37.43 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Chateau de La Chaize La Chaize Lieu dit Monopole Brouilly 2022 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $44.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dog Point Pinot Noir Marlborough 2021 red · Marlborough · 750 ml | $13.93 $43.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Conti Costanti Brunello di Montalcino Riserva 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $220 | 0.0% | — | 77% premium | <1% |
| Tenuta Degli Dei Cavalli Toscana Rosso 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine de Chevalier Pessac Leognan Blanc 2021 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $47.93 $160 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 78% premium | <1% |
| McBride Sisters Black Girl Magic Riesling white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 $21.99 Sale | ▼ 4.3% | ▲ 10.0% | 78% premium | 41% typically +4% if it rises |
| Achaval Ferrer Malbec Finca Mirador Mendoza 2018 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $38.73 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 78% premium | <1% |
| Bodegas Ondalan Garnacha 2021 red · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dievole Chianti Classico Novecento 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 78% premium | <1% |
| Marietta Cellars Angeli Zinfandel Alexander Valley 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 78% premium | <1% |
| Mark Ryan Winery 216 Miles To Go Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2023 red · Washington · 750 ml | $34.99 | — | — | 78% premium | 1% |
| Cloudy Bay Te Wahi Pinot Noir Central Otago 2018 red · 750 ml | $22.43 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 78% premium | <1% |
| Sulavi Pirosmani Semi Dry Red Kakheti Georgia red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 78% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Haut Brion Pessac Leognan 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $464 $756 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 79% premium | <1% |
| Boscarelli Sotto Casa Vino Nobile di Montepulciano Riserva 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | 79% premium | <1% |
| Conti Costanti Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $74.99 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Spottswoode Lyndenhurst Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $68.03 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Joanin Becot Castillon Cotes de Bordeaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $15.53 $31.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 79% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Doisy Daene Barsac 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 79% premium | <1% |
| Casa Silva S7 Carmenere Colchagua Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | 79% premium | 1% |
| Matthews Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $14.93 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 80% premium | 1% |
| Cartuxa Red Blend Alentejo 2020 red · 750 ml | $27.99 | — | — | 80% premium | 1% |
| Clos du Val Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $59.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Rex Hill Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $10.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Roda Rioja Sela 2023 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $38.99 | 0.0% | — | 80% premium | 1% |
| Felino Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.79 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.6% | 80% premium | 4% |
| Papi Prosecco Rose sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 80% premium | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| WALT Pinot Noir Bob's Ranch Sonoma Coast 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $47.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 80% premium | <1% |
| MontRubi L'Ancestral Rose Penedes 2021 rosé · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml | $8.23 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 80% premium | <1% |
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