Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mendes and Symington Contacto Vinho Verde 2024 white · Vinho Verde · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Haut Brion Pessac Leognan 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $170 $570 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau de Fieuzal Pessac Leognan Blanc 2018 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $37.53 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 46% premium | <1% |
| Domaine Jean Vullien et Fils Cremant de Savoie Brut sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 46% premium | 1% |
| Ruffino Il Ducale Merlot Sangiovese red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.49 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Soter Vineyards Estates Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.93 $51.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barth Riesling Fructus 2022 white · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| J Lohr Chardonnay Arroyo Vista white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.99 | ▲ 3.7% | — | Fairly priced | 14% typically +6% if it rises |
| Chateau Coujan La Pinot Noir Vin de France 2024 red · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Paloumey Organic Cru Bourgeois Haut Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Darioush Signature Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $90.03 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Guarachi Family Wines Pinot Noir Sun Chase Vineyard Petaluma Gap Sonoma County 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $22.43 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 47% premium | <1% |
| Hanna Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 14.3% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Calon Segur Saint Estephe 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $50.93 $170 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hamilton Russell Vineyards Chardonnay Hemel En Aarde Valley 2023 white · 750 ml | $49.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Maison Saint AIX Coteaux d'Aix en Provence Rose 2023 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $6.93 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 47% premium | <1% |
| TOP SOURCE Winery Red Syrah Walla Walla Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beringer Private Reserve Chardonnay Napa Valley 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.43 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Browne Family Vineyards Bitner Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Saint AIX Coteaux d'Aix en Provence Rose 2024 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $20.99 $22.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 47% premium | <1% |
| Vina Alicia Las Compuertas Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaux Freres Belles Soeurs Pinot Noir Ribon Ridge Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $31.93 $116 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 47% premium | <1% |
| Saracina Sauvignon Blanc Mendocino County 2023 white · 750 ml | $19.99 $23.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 19 Crimes The Warden Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.69 $18.69 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | 47% premium | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Aquilini Gia Bella Brut Rose Red Mountain 2020 sparkling · Washington · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Morande Vigno Old Vines Dry Farmed Red Blend Maule Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nautilus Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Big Smooth Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.89 $19.79 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 16.5% | 47% premium | 2% |
| Planeta Santa Cecilia Nero d'Avola Noto 2018 red · 750 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Broadbent Rainwater Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Goldeneye Ten Degrees Pinot Noir 2021 red · 750 ml | $40.43 $135 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Groth Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve Oakville 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $160 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sanford Pinot Noir Sta Rita Hills red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Poujeaux Moulis en Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Paul Garaudet Cuvee Paul Monthelie Rouge 2018 red · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dr Thanisch Bernkasteler Graben Riesling GG QbA Mosel 2019 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $10.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rocky Pond Cabernet Sauvignon Rocky Reach 2021 red · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $38.93 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cheval Blanc Saint Emilion Grand Cru Classe 2022 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $1,000 | ▲ 11.1% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Wente Vineyards Chardonnay Riva Ranch Monterey County white · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | 48% premium | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Wine Chat Nothing Says Christmas White Wine white · 187 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 25.1% | Fairly priced | 26% typically +4% if it rises |
| Harken Chardonnay Barrel Fermented white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.63 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 33.6% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +4% if it rises |
| Scott Family Estate Pinot Noir Arroyo Seco 2018 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | <1% |
| EIEIO & Company Cuvee E Pinot Noir 2017 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Auslese Wehlener Sonnenuhr 2023 white · 750 ml | $96.99 | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | 1% |
| Once and Future Petite Sirah Palisades Vineyard Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | <1% |
| Frog's Leap Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford 2023 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $79.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Roscato Rosso and Moscato 2x750 mL Variety Pack white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | 13% typically +4% if it rises |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Roserock Zephirine Pinot Noir Eola Amity Hills 2017 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $64.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48% premium | 1% |
| MacMurray Estate Vineyards Pinot Noir Russian River Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $31.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 23.1% | Fairly priced | 5% |
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