Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domaine Adrien Besson Montmains Chablis 1er Cru 2022 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $20.99 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 8% below | <1% |
| Chateau Haut Maurin Sauvignon Blanc Bordeaux 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 8% below | <1% |
| Nardelli Primitivo Puglia 2023 red · Puglia · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 8% below | 1% |
| La Terre Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.29 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.0% | 8% below | 12% typically +11% if it rises |
| Sutter Home Pinot Noir red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.99 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | 8% below | <1% |
| Domaine Bousquet Sparkling Tupungato Valley Brut sparkling · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | 8% below | 2% |
| Sycamore Lane Chardonnay white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.48 $10.96 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 8% below | 1% |
| Fish Eye Shiraz red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8% below | <1% |
| Lavis Pinot Grigio Trentino 2021 white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 8% below | <1% |
| Sycamore Lane Pinot Grigio white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.48 $10.96 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 7% below | 1% |
| Yellow Tail Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.99 $7.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7% below | 4% |
| Box Wize Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.49 | ▲ 4.5% | — | 7% below | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Jean Claude Mas AllNatt Vermentino Pays d'Oc 2022 white · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 7% below | <1% |
| Lavis Pinot Grigio Trentino 2025 white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 7% below | 1% |
| Portillo Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.49 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7% below | 1% |
| Zorgvliet Cabernet Franc Banghoek Stellenbosch Estate 2019 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 7% below | <1% |
| Pertico Pinot Grigio Vigneti delle Dolomiti 2022 white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 7% below | <1% |
| Sutter Home Pink Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $8.49 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 6.3% | 7% below | 5% typically +11% if it rises |
| Jaume Serra Cristalino Cava Brut Rose sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7% below | 28% typically +23% if it rises |
| Three Thieves Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.29 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | 7% below | 9% typically +12% if it rises |
| Willm Pinot Noir Alsace Reserve 2018 red · Alsace · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6% below | 1% |
| Domaine Bousquet Organic Vegan Virgen Red Blend Tupungato 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | 6% below | <1% |
| Quail Oak Cabernet Sauvignon California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.22 | 0.0% | ▲ 30.5% | 6% below | 19% typically +12% if it rises |
| California Roots Red Blend red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.1% | 5% below | 10% typically +11% if it rises |
| Yellow Tail Riesling white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.14 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | 5% below | 1% |
| Lavis Pinot Grigio Trentino white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 5% below | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Mazarini Prosecco DOC Italy sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.39 | 0.0% | — | 5% below | 15% typically +9% if it rises |
| Vinos de Arganza Verdejo Godello Castilla y Leon Encanto 2023 white · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 5% below | <1% |
| Arbor Mist Blackberry Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4% below | 4% |
| Yellow Tail Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $8.29 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | 4% below | 5% |
| Fives Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Robertson 2019 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 4% below | <1% |
| California Roots Cabernet Sauvignon red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.1% | 4% below | 10% typically +11% if it rises |
| Casal Garcia Tinto Lisboa 2020 red · 750 ml | $3.23 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 4% below | <1% |
| Arbor Mist Pink Raspberry Moscato white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4% below | 5% typically +12% if it rises |
| Redwood Highway Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.34 $4.69 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 4% below | 2% |
| Sutter Home Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.99 $7.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4% below | 7% typically +22% if it rises |
| Castle Rock Pinot Noir California Cuvee 2023 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 3% below | 1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.89 | 0.0% | — | 3% below | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Yellow Tail Pure Bright Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $8.29 Sale | 0.0% | — | 3% below | 8% typically +9% if it rises |
| Ballard Road Pinot Noir Oregon red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | 3% below | 2% |
| Reserve des Hospitaliers Cotes du Rhone Blanc 2021 white · Rhone · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 3% below | <1% |
| Santa Julia Innovacion Chenin Chardonnay Mendoza 2021 white · Mendoza · 1000 ml | $7.99 | 0.0% | — | 2% below | <1% |
| Arbor Mist Peach Moscato white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2% below | 5% typically +12% if it rises |
| Simply Red Blend Washington State 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 2% below | <1% |
| Txakoli Primo Zarautz 2020 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 1% below | <1% |
| Castle Rock Sauvignon Blanc 2023 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 1% below | 1% |
| DAOU Vineyards and Winery Discovery Collection Rose Paso Robles 2020 rosé · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | 1% below | <1% |
| Txakoli Primo Zarautz 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 1% below | <1% |
| Hook or Crook Cellars Heritage Chardonnay Lodi 2022 white · Lodi · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 1% below | <1% |
| Chateau Benitey Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $14.39 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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