Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenuta Regaleali Grillo Sicilia 2022 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaulieu Vineyard Georges De Latour Private Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $102 $170 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Pinot Noir Two Creeks Andersen Vally 2022 red · 750 ml | $33.03 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | <1% |
| Crossbarn Chardonnay Sonoma Coast 2022 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Charvin Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $74.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | <1% |
| Jaffurs Wine Cellars Viognier Santa Barbara County 2023 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $19.79 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | <1% |
| Les Lauzeraies Rose Tavel 2023 rosé · Rhone · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Les Boudots Nuits Saint Georges 1er Cru 2018 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $65.03 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32% premium | <1% |
| Marcel Couturier Pouilly Loche 2018 white · 750 ml | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Demarie Luigi Vino Frizzante Roero Rose rosé · Piedmont · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | 5% typically +4% if it rises |
| Dona Paula Estate Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +4% if it rises |
| Muga Anden Crianza Rioja 2023 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Stony Run Winery Viognier Lehigh Valley white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.79 | 0.0% | ▲ 32.0% | 32% premium | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| 90 Plus Cellars Prosecco Brut Lot 50 sparkling · Veneto · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | 4% |
| Alvear PX Sherry Spain dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Blue Nun Riesling white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $12.99 Sale | ▲ 25.0% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jean Manciat Macon Charnay 2023 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $23.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| La Fleur Renaissance Sauternes dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Natura Pinot Noir Twin Pack 2x750 mL red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.23 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Sauvignon Blanc North Coast 2022 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $9.93 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Palmer Alter Ego Margaux 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $200 $300 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Sainte Roseline Le Cloitre Cotes de Provence Rose 2025 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de la Grosse Pierre Claudius Chiroubles 2019 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $14.03 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Famiglie Montepulciano d'Abruzzo red · Abruzzo · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.59 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Fess Parker Ashley Chardonnay Santa Rita Hills 2023 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $37.99 $42.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Roederer Estate L'Ermitage Brut 2019 sparkling · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Cakebread Cellars Merlot Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $52.43 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Chateau de Beaucastel Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $99.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dancing Crow Vineyards Old Stake 1901 Cabernet Sauvignon Lake County 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.13 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Silverado Vineyards Chardonnay Los Carneros 2021 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $12.93 $42.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Domaine Alain Voge Les Vieilles Vignes Cornas 2018 red · 750 ml | $63.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lothian of Elgin Pinot Noir 2021 red · 750 ml | $17.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Beauregard Pomerol 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $29.93 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| De Wetshof Limestone Hill Chardonnay Robertson 2022 white · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bottega Vinaia Pinot Grigio Trentino white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 17.7% | 33% premium | 2% |
| Howell Mountain Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Howell Mountain 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $99.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Muralhas Vinho Verde 2022 white · Vinho Verde · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nautilus Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2022 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Vatan Nisia Old Vine Verdejo Rueda 2024 white · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $17.99 | — | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Lafon Rochet Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $74.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Charvin Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $44.99 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Groth Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $115 $185 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| SoDo Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Deadbird red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.13 $20.79 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Feudi di San Gregorio Taurasi 2019 red · 750 ml | $48.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Tendril Cellars Childs Play Chardonnay Willamette Valley 2021 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Trimbach Reserve Muscat Alsace 2021 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Di Giovanna V18 Vasca Diciotto Nero d'Avola Sicilia 2022 red · Sicily · 3000 ml | $31.99 | ▲ 6.7% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Aveleda Loureiro Vinho Verde 2021 white · Vinho Verde · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Conde Valdemar Rioja Reserva 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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