Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Box Pinot Grigio white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +12% if it rises |
| Black Box Pinot Noir red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Black Box Pinot Noir red · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +12% if it rises |
| Black Box Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Black Box Riesling white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Black Box Rose rosé · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | 4% premium | 1% |
| Black Box Rose rosé · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.99 $5.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Black Box Sauvignon Blanc white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Black Box Sauvignon Blanc white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 10% typically +9% if it rises |
| Black Box Shiraz red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | 9% premium | 3% |
| Black Box Tart and Tangy Sauvignon Blanc white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | 5% premium | 5% typically +4% if it rises |
| Black Box Tart and Tangy Sauvignon Blanc white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +9% if it rises |
| Black Box Vibrant and Velvety Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Black Cottage Pinot Noir Marlborough 2021 red · Marlborough · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Cottage Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2022 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Black Cottage Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $12.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Magnolia Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Pearl Cabernet Sauvignon Coastal Region 2020 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Pearl Cabernet Sauvignon Coastal Region 2021 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Pearl Chenin Blanc Swartland 2021 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 27% below | <1% |
| Black Pearl Chenin Blanc Swartland 2024 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $11.99 | — | — | 33% below | 1% |
| Black Pearl Mischief Maker Red Blend Paarl 2021 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Stallion Cabernet Sauvignon North Coast red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $25.49 | ▲ 2.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Bucephalus Red Wine Blend Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $150 | — | — | 194% premium | 1% |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Gaspare Vineyard Oak Knoll District of Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $74.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Estate Grown Cabernet Sauvignon Gaspare Vineyard Oak Knoll District of Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $20.93 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Limited Release Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Limited Release Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $44.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Limited Release Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Limited Release Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Transcendent Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $44.93 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 100% premium | <1% |
| Black Stallion Los Carneros Chardonnay 2022 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 62% below | <1% |
| Blackstone Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $9.49 Sale | ▲ 5.6% | ▼ 20.9% | 29% below | 2% |
| Blackwater Lazy Lucy Rose Grenache Swartland 2021 rosé · Western Cape · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Blackwater Lazy Lucy Rose Grenache Swartland 2023 rosé · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Blalock & Moore Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Blalock and Moore Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Blandy's Bual Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Blandy's Bual Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 15 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $53.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 13% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Rainwater Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Blandy's Sercial Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +10% if it rises |
| Blandy's Sercial Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Blason d'Issan Margaux 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $47.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Blason d'Issan Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Blason d'Issan Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $38.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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