Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teixadal de Casaio Treixadura Ribeiro 2020 red · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Durieu Lucile Avril Chateauneuf du Pape 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Paul Autard Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ottosoldi Gavi 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Blue Rock Vineyard Baby Blue Red Blend Sonoma County 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Langhe Nebbiolo 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $15.83 $52.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| iLauri Chiola Cerasuolo d'Abruzzo 2021 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Jeannin Naltet Clos des Grands Voyens Monopole Mercurey 1er Cru 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sarah's Vineyard Dwarf Oak Pinot Noir Santa Clara Valley 2018 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bota Box Nighthawk Black Lush Pinot Noir red · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | ▼ 14.3% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +9% if it rises |
| Domaine du Pegau Chateauneuf du Pape Cuvee Reservee Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $22.43 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Renacer Punto Final Malbec Classico Mendoza 2024 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Airfield Estates Cabernet Sauvignon Yakima Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.63 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calabuig Macabeo Valencia 2021 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $40.43 $135 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Langhe Nebbiolo 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Deep and Dark Cabernet red · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +9% if it rises |
| Domaine Romy Les Pierres Dorees Beaujolais Rouge 2020 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sokol Blosser Evolution Pinot Noir Oregon Box 2019 red · Oregon · 1500 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Crossbarn by Paul Hobbs Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $41.23 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Il Poggione Brunello di Montalcino 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $23.73 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Koudiat by Lavau Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Louis Jadot Clos de la Barre Monopole Volnay 1er Cru 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $34.93 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Langoa Barton Saint Julien 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $74.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Langhe Nebbiolo 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Smiling Donkey Red Douro 2023 red · Douro · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| The Vice Howell Mountain Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.43 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bergevin Lane Vineyards Linen Red Blend Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Kotrotsos Mavrodaphne 2018 red · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Poggio Landi Brunello di Montalcino Riserva 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beringer Founders' Estate Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $15.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 10.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Siaurac Lalande de Pomerol 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $8.33 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Casanova di Neri Brunello di Montalcino 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Fonplegade Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $65.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $41.93 $140 Clearance | ▲ 47.4% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Robert Mondavi Private Selection Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | ▼ 7.7% | ▼ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Tenuta Ulisse Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2018 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| The Eyrie Vineyards Trifolium Red Blend Willamette Valley Dundee Hills 2020 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $7.23 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaulieu Vineyard BV Reserve Rutherford Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $22.43 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Paul Autard Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $23.73 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Familia Traversa Tannat Uruguay 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trapiche Oak Cask Cabernet Sauvignon Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 $9.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Black Cottage Pinot Noir Marlborough 2021 red · Marlborough · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Courac Cotes du Rhone Villages Laudun Rouge 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cune Bela Ribera del Duero Tinto 2023 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine de Belle Mare Sauvignon Pays d'Oc 2024 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Liberty Creek Sweet Red red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Francois Villard L'Appel des Sereines Syrah Collines Rhodaniennes 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| L'Antica Quercia Su Alto Colfondo Frizzante 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.23 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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