Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domaine Serene Yamhill Cuvee Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $38.99 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Les Preuses Chablis Grand Cru 2020 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $90.03 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Gaps Crown Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $48.93 $175 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Nine Hats Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vietti Castiglione Barolo 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $41.99 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wairau River Pinot Gris Marlborough white · Marlborough · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | 10% typically +5% if it rises |
| A to Z Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Bledsoe McDaniels Chenin Blanc Willamette Valley Oregon 2024 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $32.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bouvet Ladubay Tresor Brut Loire Rose sparkling · Loire · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cantina Zaccagnini Il Bianco di Ciccio Abruzzo white · Abruzzo · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.34 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 24.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Margaux Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $1,000 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Parent Les Chanlins Pommard 1er Cru 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $70.03 $140 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Tardieu Laurent Chateauneuf du Pape Vieilles Vignes Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.43 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaines Ott Clos Mireille Cotes de Provence Rose 2023 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $49.99 $53.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | 1% |
| Magna Montis Malbec Tupungato Uco Valley 2024 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Nine Hats Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Philippe Le Hardi Chardonnay Bourgogne Vieilles Vignes 2022 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bojador Blanc de Blancs Alentejo Brut sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | 1% |
| Chateau La Fleur Saint Emilion 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.93 $42.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Lafon Rochet Saint Estephe 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $20.73 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cornerstone Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Benchlands Napa Valley 2016 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $35.03 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sterling Vineyards Merlot Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.33 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Villa a Sesta Chianti Classico Riserva 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $25.99 $29.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Willamette Valley Vineyards Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $34.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.4% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Zensa Organico Primitivo Puglia 2020 red · Puglia · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Castle Rock Pinot Noir Reserve Russian River Valley 2022 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de Vauroux Chablis Bougros Grand Cru 2018 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $24.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Matias Riccitelli This is Not Another Lovely Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Urban Riesling Mosel 2020 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Long Shadows Chester Kidder Red Blend Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pinhal da Torre Executivo 2017 red · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Quailhurst Vineyard Estate Classique Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Palmer Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $150 $500 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Ilarria Irouleguy Rose 2021 rosé · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Merlot Three Palms Vineyard Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $30.93 $115 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lake Sonoma Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Matchbook The Arsonist Chardonnay Dunnigan Hills 2018 white · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alphonse Dolly Cuvee Silex Sancerre Blanc 2023 white · Loire · 750 ml | $22.19 $36.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Canon la Gaffeliere Saint Emilion 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $65.93 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Rioja Alta Tempranillo Vina Aran Rioja Gran Reserva 2014 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $53.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Los Helechos Ensemblados Malbec Uco Valley 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | <1% |
| St Supery Elu Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $27.93 $87.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wine Chat A Grown Up Stocking Stuffer Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | ▲ 7.7% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Bodegas Ondalan 100 Abades Graciano Rioja 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $19.79 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Boutinot Les Coteaux Schisteux Cotes du Rhone Villages Seguret Rouge 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Margherita Prosecco Superiore sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 32% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Ste Michelle Cabernet Sauvignon Indian Wells Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Lothian of Elgin Chardonnay 2021 white · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Luca Old Vine Malbec Mendoza 2019 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rutherford Hill AJT Sauvignon Blanc 2022 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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