Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Petit Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc 2021 white · 750 ml | $16.93 $56.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Quinta do Popa Contos da Terra Douro Tinto 2019 red · Douro · 750 ml | $4.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zenato Ripassa Valpolicella Superiore Ripasso 2020 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $16.19 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frog's Leap Chardonnay Shale and Stone Napa Valley 2023 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Paco and Lola Celebration Albarino Rias Baixas 2023 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Risata Moscato d'Asti sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +4% if it rises |
| Ruffino Organic Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.13 $17.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Cakebread Cellars Chardonnay Napa Valley Reserve 2022 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de Bel Air Pouilly Fume 2025 white · Loire · 750 ml | $27.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Francois Lecomte Pouilly Fuisse 2023 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $34.99 $36.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Klinker Brick Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi 2020 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% premium | <1% |
| Santa Ema Cabernet Sauvignon Reserva Maipo Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Tendril Cellars Childs Play Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Handley Cellars Pinot Noir RSM Vineyard Anderson Valley 2018 red · 750 ml | $16.23 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| PlumpJack Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $115 $192 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tania and Vincent Careme Spring Chenin Blanc Vouvray 2020 white · Loire · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenshen Red Blend Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.23 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.3% | 29% premium | 1% |
| True Myth Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles red · Paso Robles · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29% premium | 1% |
| Drylands Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $16.99 $18.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taquilino Treixadura Ribeiro 2021 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Time and Direction Wines UpUpDownDownLeftRightLeftRightBASelectStart Grenache Rose 2021 rosé · 750 ml | $7.73 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Guerrin Pouilly Fuisse Vieilles Vignes 2023 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Gemma di Luna Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | ▲ 18.5% | ▲ 23.1% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| McWilliams Sparkling Shiraz 2024 sparkling · 750 ml | $12.99 $16.99 Sale | — | — | 29% premium | 1% |
| Raptor Ridge Estate Cuvee Sparkling Brut Rose 2019 sparkling · 750 ml | $20.99 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Titan Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve California 2022 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $26.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cantina Gabriele Sangiovese Lazio red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% premium | 1% |
| Domaine de Montcy Ligere Cheverny 2022 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine le Prieure des Papes Organic Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge Vieilles Vignes 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% premium | <1% |
| Hula o Maui Pineapple Sparkling Wine sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% premium | 1% |
| La Val Albarino Rias Biaxas 2023 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Quattro Theory Merlot Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% premium | 1% |
| Serego Alighieri Vaio Amarone della Valpolicella Classico 2013 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 10,000 Hours Red Mountain Cabernet Sauvignon 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.33 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Muriel Gran Reserva Rioja 2016 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $26.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau de Chantegrive Cuvee Caroline Graves Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $8.23 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cliff Lede Sauvignon Blanc Napa Valley 2021 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $31.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frank Family Vineyards Zinfandel Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $14.93 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gaintus Radical Sumoll 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Laporte Le Rochoy Sancerre Blanc 2019 white · Loire · 750 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine de L'Olivette Tradition Bandol Rose 2022 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $6.93 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Kabinett Bernkasteler Badstube 2022 white · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| MaraBela Sparkling Tea Wild Verbena Nonalcoholic sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Yellow Tail Cabernet Sauvignon Whiskey Barrel Aged red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.13 $10.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bodegas Colome Estate Malbec Calchaqui Valley Salta 2022 red · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Double Diamond Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gavalas Assyrtico Santorini 2021 red · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Marcarini Barolo Brunate 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $74.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia El Cabrito Natural Cabernet Sauvignon Maipu 2024 red · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dancing Vines Light Secco Rose La Mancha rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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