Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salvaterra Amarone della Valpolicella 2021 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Shaw and Smith Sauvignon Blanc Adelaide Hills 2021 white · South Australia · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Board Track Racer The Shift GSM Red Blend 2019 red · 750 ml | $8.33 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Buttonwood Grove Winery Rose of Cabernet Franc 2021 rosé · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | <1% |
| Campo Viejo Rioja Reserva red · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.0% | 25% premium | 4% |
| Domaine du Cerberon Meursault Les Cras 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Knuttel Family Chardonnay Kate's Pas de Deux Russian River Valley 2021 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Moet and Chandon Ice Imperial Champagne Rose sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $71.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Apothic Dark Red Blend Limited Release red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | ▼ 6.7% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +4% if it rises |
| Castoro Cellars Balena White Blend Paso Robles 2023 white · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $17.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | 1% |
| Dancing Crow Vineyards Corbeau Ruse Lake County 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.73 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Garnacha de Fuego 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | <1% |
| J J Prum Zeltinger Sonnenuhr Riesling Mosel Auslese 2021 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $43.73 $71.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Saint Romain Villages Blanc 2019 white · 750 ml | $47.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Septima Gran Reserva 10 Barricas Malbec Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Vina Santa Rita Medalla Real Cabernet Sauvignon Gran Reserva Maipo Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Beaux Freres Chardonnay Willamette Valley 2020 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $25.43 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calera de Villiers Vineyards Pinot Noir Mt Harlan 2017 red · 750 ml | $37.53 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Januik Champoux Vineyard Merlot 2018 red · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lightpost Winery Pinot Noir San Luis Obispo County Spanish Springs Vineyard Reserve 2019 red · Central Coast · 750 ml | $15.93 $57.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sokol Blosser Pinot Noir Redland Cuvee Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Chamilly Montagny les Bassets 2023 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Copain Les Voisins Syrah Yorkville Highlands 2017 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Grand Marnier Cordon Rouge red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| J Vineyards Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Liberty School Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2023 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $14.99 $15.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| North Valley Vineyards Classic Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rombauer Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 1500 ml | $170 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas LAN D 12 Crianza Rioja 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Los Vascos Cromas Gran Reserva Cabernet Franc Colchagua Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Memo Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2020 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Podere Brizio Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.93 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Quinta da Fonte Souto Red Alentejo 2019 red · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rombauer Vineyards Chardonnay Carneros white · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $44.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 13% typically +5% if it rises |
| Bodegas Salentein Reserve Malbec Uco Valley 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Les Caillerets Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $43.93 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ferrari Carano Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.23 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mastroberardino Falanghina Sannio 2021 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta della Terre Nere Etna Bianco 2024 white · Sicily · 750 ml | $31.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Terra Vega Chardonnay Central Valley 2022 white · 750 ml | $3.83 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Red Blend Whiskey Barrel Aged red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.13 $10.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Brezon et Fils Sancerre Blanc 2024 white · Loire · 750 ml | $27.99 $29.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Merlot Three Palms Vineyard Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $55.03 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Eric Taillet ExclusivT Blanc de Meunier Brut Champagne sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Francesco Boschis Dolcetto di Dogliani Vigna dei Prey 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Josh Cellars Prosecco Rose sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $18.99 Sale | ▲ 7.3% | ▲ 35.7% | 25% premium | 20% typically +5% if it rises |
| Lion Tamer Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Peju Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $66.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Pommery Apanage Blanc de Blancs Champagne sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.73 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Riley's Row Rose of Syrah North Coast 2021 rosé · Sonoma · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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