Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau Leoville Poyferre Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $95.93 $320 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Diamond Creek Volcanic Hill Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $125 $250 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 24% premium | <1% |
| Georges Duboeuf Domaines Chateau des Capitan Julienas 2021 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $17.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 24% premium | <1% |
| H Billiot Brut Champagne Grand Cru Millesime 2018 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $94.99 $99.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| La Ruchette Doree Cotes du Rhone Villages Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 24% premium | 1% |
| Liberty School Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Paula Kornell Blanc de Noir Methode Champenoise Napa Valley 2018 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $14.73 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Perusini Refosco Peduncolo Rosso Colli Orientali del Friuli 2018 red · Friuli · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Solis Lumen Vin de Pays d'Oc Rose 2023 rosé · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Spinelli Pinot Grigio Cannister white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.99 | ▲ 12.0% | — | Fairly priced | 18% typically +5% if it rises |
| Tenuta Argentiera Poggio ai Ginepri Bolgheri Rosso 2022 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $25.99 $32.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| The Federalist Liberty Bell Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $18.99 Sale | ▼ 5.0% | ▲ 5.6% | Fairly priced | 22% typically +4% if it rises |
| Domaine de la Pepiere La Pepie Muscadet Sevre et Maine Sur Lie 2025 white · Loire · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | 24% premium | 1% |
| Kaiken Estate Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Macska Portugieser Hungary 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.93 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Malvira Rive Gauche Metodo Charmat Rose Extra Brut sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Ridge Vineyards Geyserville Alexander Valley 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $50.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Coelho Winery Pinot Noir Coelho Vineyard Van Duzer Corridor 2018 red · 750 ml | $14.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| El Primer Paso Tempranillo Toro 2021 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $6.93 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Murphy Goode Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $14.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Barnard Griffin Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dancing Crow Old Stake Field Blend Red 2022 red · 750 ml | $34.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine La Bastide Blanche Bandol Rouge 2020 red · Provence · 750 ml | $32.99 $34.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Santa Duc Aux Lieux Dits Gigondas 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $44.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fonseca Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $60.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +7% if it rises |
| Benziger Family Winery Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 20% typically +6% if it rises |
| Casa Castillo Red Blend Jumilla 2021 red · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Antonin Guyon Goudoulettes Savigny Les Beaune Rouge 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dr Loosen Blue Slate Riesling Kabinett 2022 white · 750 ml | $20.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Maucaillou Moulis en Medoc 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chocolate Shop Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Ferrari Carano Reserve Chardonnay Carneros 2021 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lagar de Fornelos Lagar de Cervera Albarino 2023 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $22.99 $24.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | <1% |
| Le Petit Lion du Marquis de Las Cases Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Matchbook Wine Company Petite Sirah Dunnigan Hills 2019 red · 750 ml | $9.03 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Price Family Estates Three Sticks Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2023 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $33.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Qupe Syrah Central Coast 2021 red · Central Coast · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia El Burro Natural Malbec Maipu 2023 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zuri Getariako Txakolina 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.93 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Gruaud Larose Saint Julien 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Sigalas Rabaud Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Trotte Vieille Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2023 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $135 | — | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +35% if it rises |
| Diemersdal Sauvignon Blanc Reserve Durbanville 2024 white · 750 ml | $13.33 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | <1% |
| Dusky Goose Pinot Noir Dundee Hills 2017 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Echo de Lynch Bages Pauillac 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $20.43 $65.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| L'Ecole No 41 Ferguson Estate Ferguson Vineyard Walla Walla Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Marca Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 17.7% | 25% premium | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Napa Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $30.99 $33.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 13.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Quinta da Ribeirinha Vale de Lobos Rose 2023 rosé · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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