Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau Fleur Haut Gaussens Bordeaux Superieur Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Trians Coteaux Varois en Provence Rose 2022 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $5.23 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cook's Brut sparkling · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $18.99 Sale | ▲ 1.6% | ▲ 11.8% | 13% premium | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| GD Vajra Barolo Ravera 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $56.73 $94.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gary Farrell Vineyards Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jasci Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2020 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Menage a Trois Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 6.3% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Teso La Monja Romanico Toro 2023 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $18.99 $19.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Boya Pinot Noir Leyda Valley 2019 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cos D'Estournel Saint Estephe Rouge 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $80.93 $270 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau de Pampelonne Cotes de Provence Rose 2024 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Carneros Brut sparkling · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $37.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.2% | Fairly priced | 10% typically +5% if it rises |
| Domaine Stephane Ogier Le Temps est Venu Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Josh Cellars Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $18.99 Sale | ▲ 1.6% | ▲ 5.6% | 13% premium | 4% |
| Kelby James Russell Cabernet Franc Finger Lakes 2021 red · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Recanati Merlot Upper Galilee 2020 red · 750 ml | $13.43 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stark Conde Cabernet Sauvignon Jonkershock Valley Stellenbosch 2018 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Susana Balbo Wines Signature Malbec Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Agathe Bursin Riesling Alsace Dirstelberg 2019 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alexandria Nicole Cellars A2 Cabernet Sauvignon Horse Heaven Hills 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $13.13 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carski Emporia Blatina Mostar 2019 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Bousquet Cabernet Sauvignon Tupungato Reserve red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Elizabeth Spencer Special Cuvee Cabernet Sauvignon Mendocino 2022 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gemma di Luna Red Gem red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Gundlach Bundschu Chardonnay Sonoma County 2022 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Roscato Moscato Sparkling sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 6.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Simi Pinot Noir Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Taylor Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Terra Vega Malbec Central Valley 2021 red · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Xumek Abismo Fina La Cienaga Malbec Valle de Zonda 2019 red · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barefoot Wine To Go Pinot Grigio white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 $6.99 Sale | ▲ 16.7% | ▲ 40.1% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Carpineto Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fox Run Vineyards Dry Riesling Seneca Lake 2022 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $10.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 13% premium | <1% |
| Golden Chardonnay California 2020 white · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 13% premium | <1% |
| Kendall Jackson Vintner's Reserve Merlot Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $21.99 Sale | ▲ 5.8% | ▲ 10.0% | 13% premium | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Les Legendes Bordeaux Blanc white · Bordeaux · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | ▲ 7.3% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Mount Fishtail Sauvignon Blanc Sur lie Marlborough 2021 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Piper Heidsieck Rare Brut Champagne Millesime 2008 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $80.93 $270 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia Chardonnay Uco Valley Reserva 2021 white · Mendoza · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Valoria Garnacha Rosado Rioja 2021 rosé · Rioja · 750 ml | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Clinet Pomerol 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $125 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $72.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Laroche Les Vaudevey Chablis 1er Cru 2022 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $40.79 $67.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Double Play Rose Pennsylvania rosé · Lake Erie · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 11.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Elmo Pio Chianti red · Tuscany · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.33 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Johnson Estate Freelings Creek Sweet Riesling Lake Erie Reserve white · Lake Erie · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Miraval Cotes de Provence Rose 2022 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 13% premium | <1% |
| Phelps Creek Vineyards Estate Chardonnay Columbia Gorge 2021 white · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| R Stuart Love Oregon Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2018 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sacha Lichine The Pale Vin de Pays du Var Rose 2021 rosé · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | 13% premium | 1% |
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