Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamblin et Fils Pinot Noir Bourgogne Rouge 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $15.59 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Leelanau Cellars Cold Duck Sparkling Wine sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +6% if it rises |
| Middle Sister Drama Queen Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.74 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mirabello Prosecco Brut sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Painted Wolf The Den Chenin Blanc Swartland 2023 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Planeta Etna Bianco 2018 white · Sicily · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Terra D'Oro Zinfandel Amador County 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.03 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zilzie Chardonnay Victoria 2020 white · 750 ml | $5.03 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Affentaler Pinot Noir Baden 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bargetto Chardonnay Regan Estate Vineyards Reserve Santa Cruz Mountains 2019 white · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaulieu Vineyard Georges De Latour Private Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $140 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bread and Butter Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $16.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 21.4% | Fairly priced | 12% typically +9% if it rises |
| Chateau Phelan Segur Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $71.99 $76.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Chateau Sansonnet Saint Emilion 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $34.93 $56.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dom Perignon Champagne Brut sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $280 | ▲ 1.8% | ▲ 64.7% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Roserock Pinot Noir 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $41.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Maurice Schoeh Cotes d'Ammerschwihr Alsace Blanc 2019 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $11.03 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Earthquake Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi 2019 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gundlach Bundschu Gewurztraminer Sonoma County 2023 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Private Selection Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.43 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rodney Strong Merlot Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $22.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 15.0% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +5% if it rises |
| Stella Rosa Sparkling Cranberry sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | ▲ 5.9% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 375 ml | $59.99 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 13 Celsius Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 $15.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Andre Jacquart Vertus Experience Extra Brut Blanc de Blancs Champagne 1er Cru sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cavit Chardonnay white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | ▲ 12.5% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Charles Smith Substance Vineyard Collection Powerline Cabernet Sauvignon Walla Walla 2016 red · Washington · 750 ml | $23.73 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dusted Valley Cabernet Sauvignon Valley Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.73 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Earthquake Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi 2021 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 8% premium | <1% |
| Franzia White Zinfandel rosé · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Jacques Saumaize Chataigniers Saint Veran Burgundy 2023 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $32.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Le Cadeau Diversite Pinot Noir Chehalem Mountains 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $54.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Maison Tardieu Laurent Gigondas Vieilles Vignes 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $38.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Odette Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Stag's Leap District 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $47.93 $160 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| R Wines Southern Belle Red Blend Jumilla 2021 red · 750 ml | $20.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Recanati Chardonnay Upper Galilee 2021 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Aperture Cellars Red Blend Alexander Valley Sonoma County 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Babich Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough Estate 2022 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Barefoot Fruitscato Watermelon Moscato 2x1.5 L white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 8% premium | 4% |
| Charles Smith Bubbled Kung Fu Girl Riesling white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 12% typically +6% if it rises |
| Charles Smith Wines of Substance Vineyard Collection Stoneridge Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2017 red · Washington · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Carbonnieux Pessac Leognan Rouge 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Col d'Orcia Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Columbia Crest Grand Estates Merlot Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cora Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2024 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Domenico Clerico Barolo del Comune di Monforte d'Alba 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $54.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Elmo Pio Sparkling We Are ZeRO Nonalcoholic sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Fiuza Premium Alicante Bouschet Reserva Tejo 2019 red · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Freemark Abbey Merlot Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $14.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gundlach Bundschu Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma Valley Sonoma County 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $16.23 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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