Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perrier Jouet Belle Epoque Champagne sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $190 | 0.0% | ▲ 21.8% | 194% premium | 7% typically +11% if it rises |
| Krug Brut Rose Champagne sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $480 | — | — | 201% premium | 4% |
| Piper Heidsieck Rare Brut Rose Champagne Millesime 2012 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $135 $450 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 287% premium | <1% |
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