Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodega Piedra Negra Organic Malbec Reserve Los Chacayes 2020 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Fernand and Fils Coteaux Du Giennois Pinot Noir 2022 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gai'a Monograph Assyrtiko Peloponnese 2021 white · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lolea Red Sangria red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Santa Julia El Burro Natural Malbec Maipu 2024 red · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Torbreck Woodcutter's Shiraz Barossa Valley 2021 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fabre en Provence Cru Classe Cotes de Provence Rose 2024 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $20.99 $22.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mercer Bros. Edge of Heaven Red Blend 2019 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Terras Gauda O Rosal Rias Baixas 2023 red · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Altovinum Evodia Garnacha Calatayud 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Casas del Bosque Reserva Cabernet Sauvignon Rapel Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% premium | <1% |
| Bolla Soave white · Veneto · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.43 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 16.9% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| B Side Pinot Noir North Coast red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | 26% premium | 2% |
| Quinta do Crasto DOC White Douro 2018 white · Douro · 750 ml | $6.93 $20.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas David Moreno Rioja Crianza Family Selection 2019 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elizabeth Spencer Cabernet Sauvignon Mendocino 2020 red · 750 ml | $14.73 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia La Vacquita Natural Clarete Maipu 2024 red · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Alta Vista Torrontes Mendoza Estate 2021 white · Mendoza · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Los Vascos Cromas Gran Reserva Cabernet Sauvignon Colchagua Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $21.99 $23.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maior de Mendoza Fulget Albarino Rias Baixas 2020 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% premium | 1% |
| Mason Cellars Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.24 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 26% premium | 2% |
| Riondo Prosecco Spago Nero sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 $17.99 Sale | ▲ 1.7% | ▲ 20.0% | 26% premium | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Te Mata Sauvignon Blanc Hawke's Bay 2023 white · Hawke's Bay · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 26% premium | <1% |
| Vina Leyda Garuma Single Vineyard Sauvignon Blanc Leyda Valley 2023 white · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vins El Cep Pet Nat Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bulgariana Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.53 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 27% premium | 1% |
| Leese Fitch Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.79 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 11.4% | 27% premium | 1% |
| Aslina Sauvignon Blanc Stellenbosch 2023 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 27% premium | <1% |
| Roaming Dog Red Blend Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Solena Estate Pinot Gris Willamette Valley 2020 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine La Berangeraie Les Traverset Cahors 2023 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Verdi Spumante sparkling · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.69 $17.69 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +9% if it rises |
| 3SAPAS Malbec Mendoza Reserva 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $17.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Martin Codax Albarino white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | ▲ 5.6% | ▲ 18.8% | 27% premium | 4% |
| Six Hats Gatsby Mourvedre Piekenierskloof 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franzia Chillable Red red · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | 27% premium | 4% |
| Oyster Bay Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bistro Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Calvet Cremant de Bordeaux Brut Rose sparkling · Bordeaux · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Flavia Etna Rosso 2018 red · Sicily · 1000 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Moselland Pfalz Rose Cat Bottle rosé · Rheinhessen / Pfalz · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 30% typically +5% if it rises |
| Unshackled Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▼ 14.8% | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Ava Grace Pinot Grigio California white · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.24 $12.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 25.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Baron Philippe de Rothchild Escudo Rojo Syrah Maipo Reserva 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.23 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bernard Fouquet Domaine des Aubuisieres Cuvee de Silex Vouvray 2021 red · Loire · 750 ml | $14.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Caldirola Merry Christmas Sparkling Moscato sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.33 $18.99 Clearance | ▲ 26.7% | ▲ 26.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau La Rame Bordeaux Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Donnafugata Anthilia Sicilia Bianco 2023 white · Sicily · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 28% premium | <1% |
| La Val Albarino Rias Biaxas 2022 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jacob's Creek Shiraz Reserve red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.23 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | <1% |
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