Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colgin IX Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $800 | 0.0% | — | 811% premium | <1% |
| Domaine de la Romanee Conti Romanee Saint Vivant Grand Cru 2020 red · 750 ml | $2,625 $3,500 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 837% premium | <1% |
| Harlan Estate Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $480 $1,600 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 1080% premium | <1% |
| Promontory Red Wine Napa Valley 2016 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $900 | 0.0% | — | 1608% premium | <1% |
| Promontory Red Wine Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $610 $1,010 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 1846% premium | <1% |
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