Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iLauri Chiola Cerasuolo d'Abruzzo 2021 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| le Fat Bastard Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +6% if it rises |
| le Fat Bastard Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.09 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| le Fat Bastard Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +6% if it rises |
| le Fat Bastard Syrah red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | <1% |
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