Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prophecy Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.43 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Winery The Estates Red Blend Oakville Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $20.93 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Shoe Crazy Sweet Peach Mango Delight Cuvee Sparkling sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| University Wine Company Lion's Roar Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Xisto Preto Rose Douro 2023 rosé · Douro · 750 ml | $8.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Aravail Red Blend Monterey County red · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $10.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Autumn Frost Blackberry Red Blend Wine Spritzer red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +9% if it rises |
| Bartenura Asti sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Bodegas Obalo San Roque Rioja 2023 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Boomtown by Dusted Valley Pinot Gris Columbia Valley 2023 white · Washington · 750 ml | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Latour Martillac Pessac Leognan Blanc 2022 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $56.99 $60.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Leon Bordeaux Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Clotilde Legrand Saumur Champigny Les Lizieres 2022 red · Loire · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Crios Malbec Uco Valley 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dog Point Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $24.99 | ▲ 13.6% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| EQ Coastal Sauvignon Blanc Casablanca Valley 2023 white · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $12.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Iron Horse Ocean Reserve Blanc de Blanc Green Valley of Russian River Valley 2017 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lanson Le Vintage Champagne 2012 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Les Tannes en Occitanie Rose Pays d'Oc 2021 rosé · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Malvira Roero Arneis 2022 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mastroberardino Radici Taurasi Riserva 2016 red · 750 ml | $24.93 $72.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mount Nittany Tailgate Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Raptor Ridge Barrel Select Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.93 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Spy Valley Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2022 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stella Rosa L'Orginale Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.49 | ▲ 3.1% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Stella Rosa L'Originale Stella Rosso red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.49 | ▲ 3.1% | ▲ 17.9% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 11.1% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Yellow Tail Chardonnay white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Yellow Tail Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $8.29 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Yellow Tail Sauvignon Blanc white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 3% premium | 4% |
| 19 Crimes The Banished Dark Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Apothic Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | ▼ 6.7% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Arrumaco Tempranillo red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.79 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Arundel Cellars Soulmates Blush Lake Erie rosé · Lake Erie · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 13% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bodegas Bilbainas Vina Pomal Organic Rioja Reserva 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Casa da Passarella Branco Dao 2021 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Castle Rock Syrah Lodi 2019 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $5.03 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cellier des Chartreux Chevalier d'Anthelme Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Bouscasse Madiran 2018 red · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Col d'Orcia Brunello di Montalcino Nastagio 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $35.03 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de la Renne Sauvignon Blanc Touraine 2023 white · Loire · 750 ml | $9.59 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine des Buissonnes Cuvee Pierre a Feu Sancerre Blanc 2022 white · Loire · 750 ml | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dry Creek Fume Blanc Sonoma County white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 25.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Elizabeth Rose Chardonnay Napa Valley 2023 rosé · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| MAN Family Wines Ou Kalant Cabernet Sauvignon Coastal Region 2021 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mas de Gourgonnier Les Baux de Provence Rouge 2019 red · Provence · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Menage a Trois Pinot Grigio Limelight white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 26% typically +6% if it rises |
| Periquita White Peninsula de Setubal 2021 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Predator Old Vine Zinfandel Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.79 $19.79 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 4.2% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +8% if it rises |
| Time Machine Blanc Willamette Valley white · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
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