Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fess Parker American Traditional Reserve Chardonnay Santa Barbara white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.09 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Generation 1905 Grenache Vin de France 2019 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Les Anges Sauvignon Blanc Loire Valley 2023 white · Loire · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Magnetic Wines Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Black Box Sauvignon Blanc white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 10% typically +9% if it rises |
| Bodegas David Moreno Rioja 2023 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Nine Hats Pinot Gris Columbia Valley 2018 white · Washington · 750 ml | $7.13 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Val delle Rose Litorale Vermentino Toscana 2023 rosé · Tuscany · 750 ml | $12.99 | — | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Bodegas Medrano Irazu Choza Blanco Rioja 2023 white · Rioja · 750 ml | $6.03 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Pinot Noir Dundee Hills 2018 red · Oregon · 375 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Dominique Piron Coq Leon Gamay Vin de France 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.79 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Elephant Seven Mix Red Blend Walla Walla 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.33 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Scarpetta Frico Toscana Rosato 2024 rosé · Tuscany · 750 ml | $7.99 $9.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 1% |
| Grgich Hills Estate Napa Valley Merlot 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.03 $46.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| 111 Red Blend Navarra 2021 red · 750 ml | $6.63 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Blackstone Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $9.49 Sale | ▲ 5.6% | ▼ 20.9% | 29% below | 2% |
| Fonseca Bin 27 Reserve Port dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | — | — | 29% below | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Vina Gormaz Ribera del Duero Crianza 2016 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Beaulieu Vineyard Reserve Tapestry Red Wine Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Silver Totem Red Blend Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Vina Santa Rita Medalla Real Gold Medal Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo 2018 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Roserock Pinot Noir Eola Amity Hills Willamette Valley 2018 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $20.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29% below | <1% |
| Petal and Stem Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Taylor Lake Country Red red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.53 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | 29% below | 2% |
| Grochau Cellars Le Rouleur Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Tenuta Ulisse Sogno di Ulisse Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2021 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $5.39 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Danzante Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2024 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $7.99 | — | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Dominio de Eguren Protocolo Vino Tinto de la Tierra de Castilla 2023 red · 750 ml | $7.99 $8.99 Sale | — | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Espiritu de Chile Intrepido Cabernet Sauvignon Reserva 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Merryvale Pinot Noir Carneros Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Rex Goliath Shiraz red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.74 $7.49 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29% below | 3% |
| Belfiore Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2022 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $6.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Cathedral Cove Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Susana Balbo Wines Crios Malbec Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $13.99 | — | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Zorzettig Pinot Bianco Friuli Colli Orientali 2020 white · Friuli · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Cathedral Cove Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Cave la Comtadine Bouquet Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Cesari Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2020 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Les Champgains Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $99.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Lodi Ave Cellars Petite Sirah Lodi 2020 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Domaine de la Potardiere Muscadet Sevre et Maine 2024 white · Loire · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Beringer Main and Vine Dry Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.99 $7.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29% below | 3% |
| Le Petit Haut Lafitte Pessac Leognan Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $44.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Cantina Lavis Pinot Grigio Trentino 2019 white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Fattoria Felsina Chianti Colli Senesi 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.59 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Trivento Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $10.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 28% below | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| Cavit Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.49 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28% below | 7% typically +22% if it rises |
| 111 Red Blend Navarra 2023 red · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 28% below | 1% |
| Borealis Vintners Pinot Noir Oregon 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | 28% below | 1% |
| Wellsley Farms Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.29 | 0.0% | — | 28% below | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
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