Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau Durfort Vivens Margaux 2023 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $105 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +35% if it rises |
| Le Puy Duc des Nauves Expression Originale du Terroir Vin de France Rouge 2021 red · 750 ml | $14.39 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pine Ridge Cabernet Sauvignon Stags Leap District 2015 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $70.03 $140 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Haut Brion Pessac Leognan 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $170 $570 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ruffino Il Ducale Merlot Sangiovese red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.49 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Soter Vineyards Estates Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.93 $51.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Coujan La Pinot Noir Vin de France 2024 red · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Paloumey Organic Cru Bourgeois Haut Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Darioush Signature Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $90.03 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Guarachi Family Wines Pinot Noir Sun Chase Vineyard Petaluma Gap Sonoma County 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $22.43 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 47% premium | <1% |
| Hanna Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 14.3% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Calon Segur Saint Estephe 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $50.93 $170 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| TOP SOURCE Winery Red Syrah Walla Walla Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Browne Family Vineyards Bitner Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Alicia Las Compuertas Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaux Freres Belles Soeurs Pinot Noir Ribon Ridge Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $31.93 $116 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 47% premium | <1% |
| 19 Crimes The Warden Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.69 $18.69 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | 47% premium | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Morande Vigno Old Vines Dry Farmed Red Blend Maule Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Big Smooth Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.89 $19.79 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 16.5% | 47% premium | 2% |
| Planeta Santa Cecilia Nero d'Avola Noto 2018 red · 750 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Goldeneye Ten Degrees Pinot Noir 2021 red · 750 ml | $40.43 $135 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Groth Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve Oakville 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $160 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sanford Pinot Noir Sta Rita Hills red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Poujeaux Moulis en Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Paul Garaudet Cuvee Paul Monthelie Rouge 2018 red · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rocky Pond Cabernet Sauvignon Rocky Reach 2021 red · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Scott Family Estate Pinot Noir Arroyo Seco 2018 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | <1% |
| EIEIO & Company Cuvee E Pinot Noir 2017 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Once and Future Petite Sirah Palisades Vineyard Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | <1% |
| Frog's Leap Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford 2023 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $79.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Roserock Zephirine Pinot Noir Eola Amity Hills 2017 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $64.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48% premium | 1% |
| MacMurray Estate Vineyards Pinot Noir Russian River Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $31.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 23.1% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Bruna Grimaldi Barolo Camilla 2018 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $64.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine du Gros Nore Bandol Rouge 2019 red · Provence · 750 ml | $27.53 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Karavitakis Kompsos Liatiko Crete Greece Red 2024 red · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Alexandria Nicole Cellars Jet Black Syrah Horse Heaven Hills 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $17.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | <1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Benchland Select Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $109 $145 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau d'Issan Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $28.43 $94.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lange Pinot Noir Three Hills Cuvee Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | <1% |
| Podere Brizio Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $50.99 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Pierre Marie Chermette Coeur de Vendanges Beaujolais Rouge Vignes Centenaires 2021 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Brane Cantenac Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $68.53 $91.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 49% premium | <1% |
| Quinta da Lagoalva de Cima Gran Reserva Alfrocheiro 2018 red · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carpineta Fontalpino Do Ut Des Toscana Rosso 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.03 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine du Vieux Telegraphe La Crau Chateauneuf Du Pape Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $105 | 0.0% | — | 49% premium | <1% |
| Drouhin Oregon Roserock Pinot Noir Eola Amity Hills 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $41.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elmo Pio Sweet Red Brachetto red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | ▲ 5.8% | ▲ 15.8% | 49% premium | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Kendall Jackson Pinot Noir Grand Reserve red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 49% premium | 2% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $350 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Diemersdal Pinotage Reserve Durbanville 2023 red · 750 ml | $15.73 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 49% premium | <1% |
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