Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruta 22 Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Uco Valley 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $6.99 | — | — | 56% below | 4% |
| Two Hands Angels Share Shiraz McLaren Vale 2022 red · McLaren Vale · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 56% below | <1% |
| Layer Cake Cabernet Sauvignon 2022 red · 750 ml | $6.99 | — | — | 56% below | 9% typically +13% if it rises |
| MD 20 20 Banana Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.19 | 0.0% | ▲ 24.0% | 56% below | 6% typically +12% if it rises |
| Tamarack Cellars River Crossing Cabernet Sauvignon Barrel Reserve Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | 55% below | 1% |
| Cune Rioja Gran Reserva 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 55% below | <1% |
| Frescobaldi Remole Toscana Rosso red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $9.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 55% below | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Lorinon Rioja Reserva 2015 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 55% below | <1% |
| Conte Lorenzo Sormani Barolo 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 55% below | <1% |
| Berceo Seleccion Graciano Rioja 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 55% below | <1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Shiraz red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.09 | 0.0% | — | 55% below | 11% typically +4% if it rises |
| Chateau Noaillac Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $10.43 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 54% below | <1% |
| Unshackled Sparkling California 2018 sparkling · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | ▼ 58.4% | — | 54% below | <1% |
| Sanford Chardonnay Sta Rita Hills Estate Grown 2018 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 54% below | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Bourgogne Gamay 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | 54% below | 1% |
| Ashbourne Sauvignon Blanc Chardonnay Walker Bay 2019 white · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 54% below | <1% |
| Beckon Pinot Noir Central Coast 2016 red · Central Coast · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 54% below | <1% |
| Smith and Elliott Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 54% below | 1% |
| Substance Rb Red Blend Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 54% below | <1% |
| Wakefield Cabernet Sauvignon Clare Valley Estate 2019 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 54% below | <1% |
| Marimar Estate Albarino Don Miguel Vineyard Russian River Valley 2021 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 53% below | <1% |
| Two Hands Sexy Beast Cabernet Sauvignon McLaren Vale 2022 red · McLaren Vale · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 53% below | <1% |
| Concha y Toro Gran Reserva Preserving Nature Sauvignon Blanc Ucuquer Vineyard 2023 white · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 53% below | <1% |
| Chateau Ducasse Graves Rouge 2023 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 53% below | 1% |
| B Side Cabernet Sauvignon North Coast 2022 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 53% below | 1% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Lions de Suduiraut Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | 53% below | 1% |
| Layer Cake Shiraz South Australia 2021 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $6.99 | — | — | 53% below | 7% typically +13% if it rises |
| San Vincente Chianti Riserva 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 53% below | <1% |
| Stonehedge Grand Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | 53% below | <1% |
| Chateau Francs Magnus Bordeaux Superieur 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $6.53 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53% below | <1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Decoy Brut Cuvee sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 52% below | 1% |
| Premiere Soleil Sauvignon Blanc Napa Valley 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 52% below | <1% |
| World's Edge Cabernet Sauvignon South Eastern Australia red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.89 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.5% | 52% below | 5% |
| Bota Box Nighthawk Gold Buttery Chardonnay white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | ▼ 14.3% | ▲ 20.0% | 52% below | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Vintage Northwest Riesling Columbia Valley 2020 white · Washington · 750 ml | $2.43 $7.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 52% below | <1% |
| Unshackled Sparkling Rose California 2018 sparkling · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | ▼ 58.4% | — | 52% below | <1% |
| Mazza Chautauqua Cellars Riesling Nutt Road Finger Lakes 2019 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 51% below | <1% |
| Carlo Rossi Burgundy red · Burgundy · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.49 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 51% below | 5% |
| Kunde Magnolia Lane Sauvignon Blanc Sonoma County 2022 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $7.49 | — | — | 51% below | 1% |
| Epiphany Grenache Blanc Rodney's Vineyard Santa Barbara County 2023 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | 51% below | 1% |
| Segura Viudas Brut Rose sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | — | — | 51% below | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| El Pedal de Hermanos Hernaiz Rioja Alta 2021 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $7.13 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 51% below | <1% |
| Pio Cesare Oltre Langhe Rosso 2014 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | 50% below | 1% |
| Montes Alpha Syrah Colchagua Valley 2018 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $11.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50% below | <1% |
| Petra Zingari Toscana Rosso 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 50% below | <1% |
| St Hallett Faith Shiraz Barossa 2021 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $5.73 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 50% below | <1% |
| Stanford Blanc de Blanc Governor's Cuvee Brut sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.94 $9.88 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 50% below | 1% |
| Koha Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 50% below | 1% |
| Argyle Vintage Brut Willamette Valley 2016 sparkling · Oregon · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 50% below | <1% |
| Durigutti HD Malbec Paraje Altamira 2023 red · 750 ml | $7.79 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 50% below | <1% |
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